Why it Matters

The last binding constraint on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals is gone — and Congress wants to know what comes next. The House Foreign Affairs Committee is convening an arms control hearing on March 25, 2026, titled "Securing the Future: Arms Control and International Security for the Modern Age," against a backdrop that would have been difficult to imagine even two years ago: the New START treaty expired in February with no replacement, France is expanding its nuclear warhead stockpile and deploying nuclear-armed aircraft across Europe, Iran's nuclear trajectory is accelerating amid active U.S. military operations, and multiple U.S. allies are openly debating whether to pursue their own weapons programs.

The sole scheduled witness — Thomas DiNanno, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security — appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee just one day earlier for a companion hearing on the same subject. That both chambers are hauling in the same official in back-to-back days signals the urgency lawmakers attach to international security policy in this moment.

The Post-New START Vacuum

New START was the last remaining bilateral U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement and is the gravitational center of this hearing. For the first time since 1972, there is no treaty limiting the strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers.

DiNanno has publicly stated that "President Trump wants to find a better agreement" and has called for a multilateral framework that would bring China's expanding nuclear arsenal into the fold. The U.S. declined a Russian offer to informally continue abiding by New START's limits. According to an updated Congressional Research Service report, "throughout 2025 and in 2026, President Donald Trump has discussed potential talks with Russia and China concerning nuclear weapons reductions," with administration officials pushing for multilateral rather than bilateral negotiations.

The Brookings Institution warned in a February analysis that the administration "will need to start soon if the president wants to achieve something significant on nuclear arms control," noting the challenge posed by China's DF-5C missile debut and the complexity of building a three-party framework from scratch.

A Proliferation Cascade

The hearing arrives amid what analysts at the Arms Control Association and Just Security describe as a growing risk of nuclear proliferation across multiple regions simultaneously:

  • Iran is reportedly closer to nuclear weaponization, with the Union of Concerned Scientists warning that U.S. military operations "actively undermines global security, raises the long-term danger of nuclear proliferation, and risks dragging the United States into another dangerous and protracted conflict."
  • France announced in early March that it would increase its nuclear warheads and deploy nuclear-armed aircraft to eight European countries under an "advanced deterrence" concept — while simultaneously ending disclosure of the size of its arsenal.
  • Saudi Arabia continues to push for enrichment capabilities with U.S. support.
  • South Korea is engaged in an internal debate about acquiring nuclear weapons.
  • The NPT Review Conference is scheduled for April 2026, adding diplomatic urgency.

The White House has also reshaped the broader arms transfer landscape through a February executive order establishing an "America First Arms Transfer Strategy" and a task force to identify new foreign military sales opportunities.

What DiNanno Is Expected to Address

At the Senate hearing on March 24, DiNanno announced a new nuclear architecture that "addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era." Members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will likely press him on the same themes: the State Department's organizational capacity for modern nuclear diplomacy, the feasibility of a trilateral framework with Russia and China, and how the administration plans to manage proliferation risks in the absence of binding treaty constraints.

Arms Control Lobbying in the Lead-Up

Three organizations filed lobbying disclosures on arms control and international security topics in the year preceding the hearing:

  • The Council for a Livable World, one of the oldest U.S. advocacy organizations focused on nuclear disarmament, filed quarterly lobbying reports throughout 2025 with an estimated spend exceeding $150,000. Its affiliated PACs — the Council for a Livable World Candidate Fund and the Committee for a Livable Future — made approximately $36,300 in combined contributions to congressional campaigns during the 2024 and 2026 cycles.

  • The Nuclear Threat Initiative registered as a new lobbying client in early 2025, filed through the third quarter, then terminated its engagement in the fourth quarter of 2025 — suggesting a focused, time-limited campaign on nuclear security issues.

  • The New Eurasian Strategies Centre, which focuses on defense and foreign policy issues involving NATO, Russia, and China, filed $80,000 per quarter across the second through fourth quarters of 2025. Associated PACs contributed approximately $18,250 to congressional campaigns over the past two cycles.

The Arms Control Hearing Details

The hearing is chaired by Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL-21), with Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY-5) serving as ranking member. The fact that both the House and Senate are holding nuclear arms control hearings within 24 hours of each other — with the same witness — underscores the degree to which the securing the future of arms control has moved from a niche policy concern to a front-burner congressional priority in 2026.

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