Why it Matters

The last legally binding nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia expired on February 5, 2026. On May 19th Congress has will hold its first hearing on what comes next. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe convenes an arms control hearing on nonproliferation policy at a moment when the global framework for managing nuclear weapons is under acute stress. The stakes extend well beyond Washington: if the architecture that has constrained nuclear arsenals for decades continues to erode, the consequences for allies, adversaries, and the broader international order could be severe.

The Post-New START Vacuum

The New START Treaty lapsed in February after the Trump administration declined a one-year extension offered by Russia, leaving no legally binding limits on either country's strategic nuclear forces for the first time in decades. The administration has since called for multilateral arms control talks that would bring China to the table alongside Russia — a framework that arms control experts describe as desirable in principle but difficult to achieve in practice.

The RAND Corporation warned in February that the most immediate danger is not a numerical arms buildup but a qualitative one: "greater emphasis on hypersonic delivery systems, missile defenses, counterspace capabilities, and AI-enabled command-and-control." Analysts at Tufts University echoed that assessment, noting that the loss of verification and transparency mechanisms makes the strategic environment more dangerous even if warhead counts remain stable in the near term.

The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has flagged an additional concern: U.S. nuclear modernization plans, which could approach $2 trillion and substantially expand the number of operational warheads, risk accelerating a three-way arms race with Russia and China. That dynamic, the Quincy Institute argued, generates proliferation pressures on scores of other states that may seek their own nuclear capabilities in response.

The NPT in Crisis — Right Now

The arms control hearing lands at a moment of particular urgency for the nonproliferation regime. The 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is currently underway at United Nations Headquarters in New York, running from April 27 through May 22 — meaning it closes just three days after the hearing.

The conference is already generating controversy. Iran was elected to a vice-presidential role at the gathering in early May, drawing sharp criticism from nonproliferation advocates. The Washington Times described the development as a "glaring failure" of the current nuclear weapons conference framework. The NPT itself has now gone through two consecutive review conferences — in 2015 and 2022 — without producing a consensus outcome document, raising questions about the treaty's long-term viability.

The Arms Control Association warned in February that great-power competition is itself generating new proliferation pressures, including among U.S. allies who are quietly reassessing their reliance on the American nuclear umbrella. A Just Security analysis elaborated that the challenge now extends to "advanced industrial states that remain formally committed to nonproliferation but are quietly reassessing the durability of their restraint" amid growing doubts about U.S. extended deterrence commitments.

Institutional Erosion

Beyond the treaty architecture, the hearing is also likely to surface concerns about the institutions that underpin nonproliferation enforcement. A Harvard forum on nuclear deterrence held in April raised alarms that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which conducts nuclear weapons verification inspections, is being politicized by China. If verification infrastructure weakens alongside the treaty framework, the ability to detect and respond to proliferation activity diminishes accordingly.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in its May 2026 issue called on non-nuclear states to push for immediate risk-reduction and verification measures, while warning against detaching those steps from longer-term disarmament obligations — a tension that is likely to surface in the hearing room.

The Hearing

Rep. Keith Self (R-TX) chairs the Subcommittee on Europe and will lead the hearing, with Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA) serving as ranking member. The sole witness is Christopher Yeaw of the U.S. Department of State, who is positioned to speak to the administration's approach to arms control and strategic stability in the post-New START environment, including its posture toward the ongoing NPT Review Conference.

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