Why It Matters

The Senate Armed Services Committee convenes on February 3 as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires, eliminating the last bilateral nuclear constraints between the U.S. and Russia. This marks the first time since the early 1970s that strategic nuclear forces operate without legally binding limits.

The U.S. faces an unconstrained nuclear arms race with Russia while confronting China’s rapid arsenal expansion—transforming competition from bilateral to tripolar. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, global nuclear risk is at its highest point in history, with the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight.

Congressional leaders are sharply divided on response. Senator Deb Fischer and hawks champion aggressive modernization of the nuclear triad, including full funding for the Sentinel ICBM program. Senator Tom Cotton advocates nuclear weapons testing comparable to Russia and China’s.

Conversely, Senator Mark Kelly warns that resuming nuclear testing would be "unnecessary escalation". Advocacy groups like the Council for a Livable World and Nuclear Threat Initiative lobby for arms control over military buildup.

Russia is deploying new strategic weapons outside existing frameworks. China possesses roughly 600 nuclear warheads with projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030. The Trump administration ordered nuclear testing resumption, though immediate testing remains technically impossible.

Broader Context

Russia has accelerated strategic modernization throughout 2025, announcing successful tests of nuclear-powered delivery systems designed to circumvent arms control frameworks.

The Trump administration’s October 2025 order to resume nuclear weapons testing directs testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, though the National Nuclear Security Administration noted that the deployed stockpile remains safe without explosive testing.

The hearing follows Vice Admiral Richard A. Correll’s October 2025 confirmation as STRATCOM Commander, where he affirmed the U.S. nuclear arsenal remains "safe and reliable" while addressing modernization challenges and dual-peer threats.

The Agenda

The committee will hear from military and government officials responsible for U.S. nuclear strategy and deterrence. Recent proceedings provide insight into likely witnesses, building on the March 2025 U.S. Strategic Command hearing and May 2025 Nuclear Weapons Program hearing.

The hearing will likely draw witnesses spanning nuclear deterrence strategy, weapons systems modernization, and strategic competition assessment to address New START’s expiration and the unconstrained nuclear environment.

Committee Leadership and Key Positions

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) chairs the committee, with Ranking Member Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) overseeing nuclear deterrence discussions.

Republican Modernization Push

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), Strategic Forces Subcommittee chair, champions aggressive nuclear modernization, arguing it’s "not a matter of choice but of survival." Her priorities include fully funding Sentinel ICBMs, deploying at least 400 ICBMs, and accelerating the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) takes the most aggressive posture, advocating nuclear testing parity with adversaries who have conducted super-critical tests while the U.S. maintained zero-yield standards since 1992.

Democratic Restraint Concerns

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) opposes nuclear testing resumption as "unnecessary escalation" that could trigger an arms race. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) secured commitments opposing Nevada nuclear testing.

The Bottom Line

The February 3 hearing arrives at a critical inflection point for U.S. nuclear policy. With New START expiring and no successor agreement, America faces an unconstrained strategic environment for the first time in over five decades. Russia deploys new weapons outside existing frameworks while China rapidly expands its arsenal toward parity. The fundamental congressional divide—between modernization advocates and arms race restraint proponents—will shape U.S. nuclear posture for years ahead.

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