Why It Matters
Kalshi Inc.’s hiring of Dow Solutions Inc. signals escalating stakes in prediction market regulation. The company has invested $1.73 million across multiple lobbying firms since 2021—now adding a boutique firm to its arsenal as prediction markets face an existential policy battle over federal versus state jurisdiction.
The regulatory environment is intensifying. Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV-1) frames prediction markets as a "backdoor" to nationwide sports betting bypassing state protections. The American Gaming Association lobbies against CFTC oversight, while Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-AR) advocates for federal frameworks fostering innovation.
The outcome determines whether prediction markets remain federally regulated financial instruments or face state-by-state restrictions—shaping broader questions about innovation, consumer protection, and digital asset trading.
By the Numbers
Kalshi Inc. has spent $1.73 million on federal advocacy since 2021. Miller Strategies LLC leads at $510,000, followed by Capitol Counsel LLC at $400,000 and Lincoln Policy Group at $300,000. Rich Feuer Anderson totaled $210,000 from 2021-2024, while in-house lobbying represents $190,000 in 2025.
The January 2025 engagement with Dow Solutions Inc. adds specialized expertise. Unlike other team members, lobbyist De’Ana Dow has no congressional employment history, suggesting value from relationships outside traditional Hill channels.
The Agenda
Kalshi Inc. lobbies broadly on "matters affecting prediction markets," focusing on financial institutions and Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation without specifying particular legislation.
Key historical targets include:
- Exchange trading of event outcome contracts
- CFTC rule proposals on event contracts
- Agency authority over sports and political event contracts
- Digital commodity oversight
The regulatory battle centers on whether prediction markets are CFTC-regulated financial derivatives or state-regulated gambling. Rep. Titus argues they represent a "backdoor way to allow sports betting in 50 states," while Chairman Boozman supports federal frameworks balancing regulation with innovation.
Broader Context
Prediction markets achieved nearly $10 billion in combined trading volume by late 2025, creating mainstream legitimacy but intense pushback. State gaming boards have issued cease-and-desist orders against platforms like Kalshi, while major sportsbooks DraftKings and FanDuel launched prediction market platforms, signaling industry acceptance of federal CFTC regulation.
The American Gaming Association aggressively opposes the sector, with four in five voters supporting state-like regulation. However, Kalshi’s successful 2024 CFTC lawsuit enabled sports contracts, and the agency convened a stakeholder roundtable suggesting comprehensive policy development over prohibition.
Between The Lines
Congressional scrutiny creates urgent challenges for Kalshi. Rep. Titus has petitioned the CFTC to halt sports and political trading and questioned agency capacity. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD-8) expressed concerns about election betting.
Key hearings shaped the debate: House Agriculture examined CFTC innovation, while Senate confirmation hearings for CFTC nominee Brian Quintenz proved contentious as Titus urged probing his prediction market ties.
Reports indicate Titus and Rep. Susie Lee are advancing the FAIR BET ACT to establish federal sports betting frameworks restricting Kalshi’s offerings.
Competitive Landscape
The American Gaming Association actively opposes prediction markets, targeting CFTC sports contract regulation. DraftKings Inc. monitors CFTC activity while lobbying on federal sports betting taxes.
Pro-innovation advocates include the Center for Individual Freedom and Center for Freedom and Prosperity. RSBIX Co. also lobbies on CFTC-governed event contracts.
The fundamental divide: federal CFTC oversight versus state gaming regulation.
The Bottom Line
Kalshi’s $1.73 million lobbying investment reflects high stakes in an unresolved jurisdictional battle. While Rep. Titus frames prediction markets as illegal sports betting and the American Gaming Association opposes platforms, Chairman Boozman favors federal CFTC oversight. Major sportsbooks entering the market complicate industry alignment, while state cease-and-desist orders add urgency to federal advocacy.
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