Why it Matters

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) are leading the race for Alaska's Class II Senate seat, with money flowing in at historic levels for the state.

Sullivan, the incumbent who has held the seat since 2015, raised approximately $8.50 million in total receipts during the 2025–2026 cycle through June 30, 2026. He reported approximately $8.3 million in cash on hand in his campaign account and approximately $10 million across all committees as of that date. His campaign had approximately $2.29 million in total disbursements during the same period.

Mary Peltola raised approximately $14 million or more in total during the 2026 cycle through June 30, 2026, while Dan S. Sullivan's campaign raised approximately $8.50 million in total receipts during the same period. She raised approximately $14 million or more in total during the 2026 cycle through June 30, 2026, and had approximately $6 million in cash on hand through that date. Her first quarter 2026 fundraising of approximately $8.9 million was a record for any Alaska Senate candidate in any quarter.

The race also includes perennial candidate Richard Grayson, who lives in Arizona and has run in a number of federal elections across the country. Grayson described running for office as a personal "hobby" to OpenSecrets. A super PAC called Fair Deal Alaska has spent an estimated $210,000 or more promoting Grayson. Grayson had no active 2025–2026 Senate filing with the FEC in Alaska.

Another candidate is Dustin Darden, an Anchorage-born paralegal and former maintenance worker who is registered Republican for the 2026 race. Darden has run for office before under different party affiliations.

The Closing Argument: Who Wins

In 2022, Alaskans simultaneously elected a conservative Republican governor, a moderate Republican senator, and a moderate Democratic House member. That election sent Peltola to Congress, but she narrowly lost her House seat to Nick Begich III in 2024.

Sullivan sits on the Armed Services, Commerce, Environment and Public Works, and Veterans' Affairs committees. His record in the Senate began with his 2014 victory over Mark Begich with 49% of the vote to Begich's 46%, flipping Alaska's Class II seat Republican for the first time since 2008.

Inside Elections moved Alaska from Solid Republican to Lean Republican when Mary Peltola entered the race. The New York Times polling tracker updated August 14, 2026 shows Sullivan as the frontrunner with Peltola as the leading challenger.

Peltola's 2022 House win was largely attributed to Alaska Federation of Natives endorsement. Such endorsements carry weight in a state where approximately 40% of all Alaskans live in Anchorage. Alaska has approximately 369,000 independent and nonpartisan registered voters, representing the largest voting bloc in the state, compared to approximately 142,000 Republican registered voters.

Alaska uses a top-four open primary system in which all candidates from all parties appear on a single ballot, with the top four advancing to the general election, which is decided by ranked-choice voting. Candidates must appeal beyond their base to secure the second and third choice votes that matter in November. Sullivan's cash advantage and committee influence provide institutional strength, while Peltola's fundraising surge and recent electoral success in statewide contests signal momentum among voters willing to cross traditional party lines.

What happens in Alaska will depend on whether Sullivan can hold the state's Republican lean against a challenger who has proven capable of winning statewide despite Alaska's Republican registration advantage.

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