Cornyn Stalls in Polls as Texas Republican Senate Primary Enters Final Stretch

What Happened

Four-term Sen. John Cornyn is struggling to break away from his Republican challengers — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — as the Texas Republican Senate primary heads toward its March 3 vote, with early voting already underway.

Roll Call published an analysis titled "Cornyn flatlines in the polls ahead of Texas Republican primary," reporting that despite months of establishment backing and outside spending, Cornyn's support has remained stuck in the high-20s to low-30s. A pro-Cornyn outside group, Texans for a Conservative Majority, released a mid-November survey showing the senator ahead of Paxton by just 2 points. An early December co/efficient survey put Cornyn at 28%, Paxton at 27%, and Hunt at 19%. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released partial internal polling showing Cornyn leading Democrat James Talarico by 3 points in a general election matchup — while Paxton trailed Talarico by the same margin.

The picture that emerges: Cornyn is running an electability argument in a primary electorate that may not be buying it.

Recap: How the Texas GOP Primary 2026 Got Here

A Three-Way Race With No Clear Frontrunner

The Texas Senate race candidates have been locked in a tight contest for months. Multiple independent polls paint a picture that is, in some cases, worse for Cornyn than the Roll Call analysis suggests.

A University of Houston Hobby School poll cited by Houston Public Media showed Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, and Hunt at 17%. A Pulse Decision Science survey reported by the El Paso Times had Paxton at 36%, Cornyn at 27%, and Hunt at 15%.

Perhaps most striking: a Stratus Intelligence poll from late November, reported by Texas Scorecard, placed Cornyn in third — behind Paxton at 36% and Hunt at 26%, with the incumbent at just 25%. That same poll found 51% of likely Republican primary voters hold an unfavorable view of Cornyn.

Cornyn's Closing Argument: Electability

Cornyn has made a deliberate pivot to warning GOP voters about the general election consequences of nominating Paxton. At a Fort Worth Police Association event, Cornyn told supporters: "If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre, and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas," NBC News reported.

When asked why an electability argument would resonate with voters who backed Trump despite similar concerns in past cycles, Cornyn told NBC News: "Well, that's the whole point about elections, is to get elected."

Cornyn's campaign website touts a "more than 99.2% voting record with President Trump — higher than Ted Cruz," an attempt to neutralize any daylight between himself and the president.

The Trump Texas Senate Endorsement That Hasn't Come

The elephant in the room: President Trump has not endorsed any candidate in the John Cornyn Senate primary. In a February 2026 press interaction, Trump said: "Those are the toughest races. They've all supported me, they're all good. I support all three." He hinted he might endorse eventually, noting the race has "got a ways to go."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly lobbied Trump and top White House officials for months to endorse Cornyn. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee characterized Trump's non-endorsement as the "latest sign of trouble for the four-term senator."

The Stratus Intelligence poll tested a hypothetical Trump endorsement scenario. Even with Trump backing Cornyn, Paxton still led 44% to 41% — suggesting a Trump Republican primary Texas endorsement alone would not be enough to close the gap.

Cornyn's Campaign Trail Activity

Cornyn has been barnstorming the state in the final days before the primary. His Get Out the Vote rally schedule included stops in Austin and San Antonio on February 17, Fort Worth on February 18, and Houston on February 19.

At his San Antonio rally, Cornyn stated: "This primary election is about trust. I have never violated the public trust and I never will." At his Austin event, appearing alongside former Gov. Rick Perry and Border Patrol Union president Paul Perez, he framed the race more starkly: "Character is on the ballot."

Paxton, meanwhile, launched a new advertisement timed to the start of early voting on February 17, emphasizing his close ties to President Trump, per the El Paso Times.

Hill & Administration Take

Congressional Activity

The NRSC is firmly behind Cornyn, releasing internal polling designed to bolster the electability case. Beyond that, the primary fight has not generated specific legislative action on Capitol Hill.

Cornyn's recent public statements have touched on policy areas aligned with his legislative record — election integrity and the SAVE America Act, the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, and housing policy. His legislative portfolio in the current Congress includes border security measures like the STOP China Act and law enforcement bills like the Back the Blue Act — themes he has leaned on heavily in campaign messaging.

Administration Posture

The White House has remained neutral. Trump's public comments amount to praise for all three candidates without a formal endorsement on Truth Social or through any official channel. No executive actions or statements from the administration have addressed the race directly.

What the Media Is Reporting

Coverage beyond the Roll Call analysis reveals a more precarious position for Cornyn than the original article conveyed. NBC News's report focused on Cornyn's "massacre" warning as his central closing argument, framing the race as a test of whether electability pitches still work in a Trump-era GOP primary. Houston Public Media surfaced a dimension absent from other coverage: all three Republican candidates have been "catering to growing anti-Muslim sentiment among likely GOP primary voters," with CAIR Action's Edward Ahmed Mitchell quoted saying candidates are "tripping over each other to see who can be more anti-Muslim, who can stir up more fear of Texas Muslims in order to win votes." The El Paso Times provided granular detail on Paxton's advertising strategy timed to early voting and Cornyn's rally logistics across the state. Texas Scorecard reported the most alarming data point for Cornyn: a poll showing him in third place with head-to-head matchup numbers suggesting he is the weakest of the three candidates among Republican primary voters, losing to both Paxton (51-34%) and Hunt (52-29%) in hypothetical one-on-one contests. The Hill amplified the electability framing, echoing NBC's reporting on the "massacre" warning as the defining narrative of Cornyn's final-stretch campaign.