John Cornyn Texas Senate Primary: The Fight of His Political Life

What Happened

Roll Call's "At the Races" column, published February 19, 2026, by Niels Lesniewski, Mary Ellen McIntire, and Daniela Altimari, surveyed the political landscape ahead of the March 3 Texas primary — and the picture it paints for Sen. John Cornyn's reelection bid is far from comfortable. The At the Races Roll Call roundup flagged a companion analysis showing the four-term incumbent has flatlined in polls against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, even as President Trump has conspicuously withheld an endorsement in the Texas Senate 2026 contest.

The column also covered Trump's "complete and total endorsement" of Carlos De La Cruz in the newly redrawn San Antonio-area 35th Congressional District, developments in New York redistricting litigation, and Democratic endorsements in the Michigan Senate race.

Recap

The Cornyn Texas Senate Race: How We Got Here

The John Cornyn reelection campaign has become one of the most closely watched Republican primaries in the country. Cornyn, first elected to the Senate in 2002, is facing a challenge from his right in Attorney General Ken Paxton and a generational-change pitch from Rep. Wesley Hunt.

A University of Houston Hobby School poll found Paxton leading among likely GOP primary voters at 38 percent, with Cornyn at 31 percent and Hunt at 17 percent. A separate Roll Call analysis published the same day showed Cornyn's support has barely moved over months — from roughly 28 percent in early December to the low 30s heading into early voting.

Cornyn has framed the race in electability terms, arguing that a Paxton nomination would drag down Trump Texas Republicans running in newly drawn competitive congressional districts. At a Fort Worth rally, he warned that the stakes extend well beyond the Senate seat, appearing alongside law enforcement leaders, Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, and Rep. Craig Goldman. On February 22, Cornyn tweeted that Paxton "would be an albatross on entire Republican ticket." NBC News reported that Cornyn told supporters: "I know they're important to President Trump, because he talks about it all the time," referring to the competitive Texas congressional districts that could be jeopardized if Paxton wins the nomination.

The NRSC has released internal polling showing Cornyn ahead of Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 3 points in a hypothetical general election matchup, while Paxton trailed Talarico by 3 points — an electability argument the Cornyn campaign has leaned on heavily.

Trump, for his part, told reporters he is giving "serious thought" to endorsing in the primary but has not done so, according to The Hill. That non-endorsement looms over the contest. Trump has, however, been active in Texas House races, endorsing De La Cruz along with Jessica Steinmann (TX-08), Alex Mealer (TX-09), and Jon Bonck (TX-38) in a single batch, according to The Texas Voice.

The Endorsement War

The outside support structure around the Senate primary tells its own story. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry's Lone Star Freedom Project has spent nearly $18 million boosting Cornyn, with Perry pledging to spend "whatever we need" to see the incumbent through. Cornyn also secured the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement. Paxton, meanwhile, locked down backing from Turning Point Action, with Paxton stating: "I'm honored to be endorsed by Turning Point Action as we fight to defend our conservative values and preserve the freedom of the next generation."

In the TX-35 congressional race, the endorsement lines are similarly drawn: Trump backed De La Cruz, while Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed state Rep. John Lujan.

Hill & Administration Take

Congressional Activity

Cornyn has remained active legislatively during the campaign. Recent bills he has sponsored in the 119th Congress include the ICE Protection Act of 2026, which would protect Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and other federal law enforcement officers, and the Stop Fraud by SOMALIA Act, targeting child care providers who commit fraud.

On February 20, Cornyn announced he led a letter with 17 Senate Republicans to the Justice Department requesting an investigation of ACA marketplace subsidies and fraudulent enrollment during the Biden administration. He also highlighted his work on the SAVE America Act, which would impose voter ID requirements for federal elections, and promoted the Working Families Tax Cuts Act during meetings with Rio Grande Valley officials and local businesses.

In committee work, Cornyn participated in a February 12 Senate Finance Committee hearing examining the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and North American competitiveness, and chaired a February 10 Border Security and Immigration Subcommittee hearing examining fraud in Minnesota — both topics that dovetail with his campaign messaging on border security and government integrity.

Administration Posture

The White House has not taken an official position on the Texas Senate primary. Trump's active endorsement activity in Texas House races — while withholding one in the Senate contest — is the most notable signal from the administration. Trump's endorsement statement for De La Cruz, posted on Truth Social and Instagram, called him "A Brave, 20 Year Air Force Veteran" and "a WINNER."

What the Media Is Reporting

Coverage of the Texas primary has been extensive and has surfaced details and perspectives not captured in the Roll Call roundup. Houston Public Media reported that all three Republican Senate candidates have been accused of stoking anti-Muslim sentiment among likely GOP primary voters, with Edward Ahmed Mitchell of CAIR Action quoted as saying: "What John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and others are doing is tripping over each other to see who can be more anti-Muslim, who can stir up more fear of Texas Muslims in order to win votes." The Texas Tribune reported on the significant down-ballot implications of the Senate primary for competitive congressional seats where Trump has been making endorsements. The Dallas Morning News framed the final week as a three-way contrast: Cornyn touting experience, Paxton promising MAGA combat, and Hunt pitching generational change. The Texas Tribune also reported on the Democratic side, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads state Rep. James Talarico by 8 percentage points, and found Trump's approval among likely general election voters in Texas nearly evenly split at 49 percent approve versus 50 percent disapprove.