Daines Drops Out, Noem Gets Fired, Mullin Tapped for DHS: A 24-Hour Political Earthquake

What Happened

Three interconnected political upheavals landed within roughly 24 hours this week, reshuffling the Republican Senate map and the Trump Cabinet in one fell swoop. The developments — Sen. Steve Daines' elections gambit in Montana, the firing of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, and the nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her — were chronicled together in Roll Call's "At the Races: How to pass the torch in two easy steps" by Daniela Altimari, Niels Lesniewski, and Mary Ellen McIntire on March 5, 2026.

The throughline: Republicans now face three open Senate seats heading into the 2026 midterms, and Democrats are framing the retirements as evidence of a party unwilling to defend its own record.

Recap

Steve Daines' Political Leadership Exit in Montana

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), 63, withdrew his Senate reelection paperwork on March 4, just minutes before Montana's filing deadline. The Montana Free Press reported that Daines pulled out just two minutes before the deadline closed — moments after U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, the Trump-appointed federal prosecutor for the District of Montana, filed to run for the seat. Daines immediately endorsed Alme.

The timing appeared designed to clear the field. As the Montana Free Press framed it, the move was intended to "dissuade anyone — except his chosen successor" from joining the race. Daines' communications director Gabby Wiggins confirmed the senator would complete his final 10 months in office.

Daines was first elected to the Senate in 2014 after a single House term and was widely expected to cruise to a third term in a state Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2024. On social media, Trump praised Daines as "one of our truly Great United States Senators".

The Republican torch passing drew immediate backlash. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar entered the race as an independent, telling the Montana Free Press: "Steve Daines has so little respect for Montana Republicans that he withdrew at the last minute to coronate his handpicked successor instead of giving them a voice at the ballot box."

The DSCC seized on the retirement. Spokesperson Monica Robinson said: "Steve Daines is joining more and more of his colleagues in deciding to throw in the towel rather than defend their toxic record."

Montana Senate politics now become a genuine battleground, with Democrats seeing a narrow opening in what was previously considered a safe Republican seat.

Noem Fired, Mullin Nominated

On March 5, President Trump fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and announced Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) as her replacement. The decision followed weeks of mounting bipartisan criticism of Noem's tenure, which included:

Mullin responded to his nomination: "There's a lot of work we can do to get the Department of Homeland Security working for the American people."

His departure from the Senate creates yet another open seat, compounding the GOP election strategy challenge for 2026.

Hill & Administration Take

Steve Daines Elections Fallout and the Senate Map

The administration has not issued formal statements beyond Trump's social media posts praising Daines and announcing the Noem-Mullin swap. Noem is reportedly set to step down at the end of March, not immediately, per Government Executive.

On the Hill, several pieces of legislation from the 119th Congress touch on the broader themes at play. The Defend Elections from Trump Act (H.R. 7626), introduced February 20, 2026, and the Stop ICE Election Militarization Act (H.R. 7621), introduced the same day, reflect Democratic concerns about immigration enforcement's intersection with elections — the same issue that fueled Noem's downfall.

Campaign finance disclosure is also in play: S. 3991, introduced on March 5, would amend the Federal Election Campaign Act to require additional disclosure from corporations, labor organizations, and Super PACs.

On the confirmation front, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) announced he would vote to confirm Mullin — a bipartisan signal consistent with Fetterman's pattern of breaking with his party on executive branch nominees.

No hearings have been scheduled specifically on Mullin's confirmation as of publication. The database does not show recent hearings directly tied to the Daines retirement or Senate vacancy procedures.

At the Races Political Analysis: Broader 2026 Dynamics

The Roll Call newsletter also flagged several other 2026 developments: New York redistricting that clears the way for GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis to seek reelection in a Republican-leaning district, the MAHA PAC's involvement in Louisiana's Republican Senate primary where Rep. Julia Letlow is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy, and a competitive Democratic primary in Illinois.

What the Media Is Reporting

Coverage of these events has been extensive and reveals details not captured in the Roll Call At the Races political analysis. The New York Times reported that Daines' withdrawal could give Democrats a "slim opening" in their "uphill fight to take the Senate majority." The Washington Post framed the retirement as a question of democratic norms, reporting that one Republican running for Congress said Daines "betrayed the trust of all Montanans." CNN reported that Noem had blindsided the White House by pausing TSA PreCheck during the DHS funding lapse — a decision reversed within hours — and that top White House officials had long been frustrated with her aide Corey Lewandowski; CNN also noted speculation that Noem might challenge Sen. Mike Rounds in a South Dakota GOP primary. ABC News reported that Trump had privately called Republican allies asking whether he should fire Noem, and was particularly upset over her exchange with Sen. Kennedy about the $220 million ad campaign. The Oklahoman reported that Oklahoma's Sen. James Lankford said Trump had long wanted Mullin in his administration and had tried earlier in his second term to recruit him, and that Mullin would be the first Oklahoman in a president's Cabinet since Scott Pruitt resigned in 2018. An Axios report noted that an early March YouGov poll showed half of Americans supported abolishing ICE — a dramatic erosion of what had been one of Trump's signature political strengths.

Access the Legis1 platform for comprehensive political news, data, and insights.