Why It Matters
The Ethiopia conflict is spreading, and the country may be heading toward war with Eritrea, according to a new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.
CRS says eight opposition groups have formed an armed alliance against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. It says the overlapping rebellions and tensions with Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan threaten to spur a broader regional conflict in which Middle East powers could take sides.
Some members of Congress have expressed concern about human rights abuses and the prospect of another conflict in Tigray. Several have called for deescalation. For the Trump administration, the report describes a policy mix of closer ties with Ethiopia and reduced foreign aid, including humanitarian assistance.
The Big Picture
The Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November 2022, ending the 2020-2022 war in northern Ethiopia.
CRS says the deal was not a comprehensive peace deal. Eritrean and Amhara forces were not party to the negotiations, and the federal government did not enforce their withdrawal. Up to 800,000 people remained displaced.
CRS says fighting resumed in early August and escalated, with increasingly frequent drone strikes in Tigray. On Sept. 20, the TPLF and six other groups announced the Alliance for Survival, according to Reuters.
In early October, Ethiopia broke ties with Eritrea and expelled an Egyptian diplomat. Ethiopia has since accused Eritrea of moving troops into Tigray. Eritrea denied the allegation and framed it as a declaration of war.
On the U.S. side, the administration waived restrictions in March under the Child Soldiers Prevention Act. The William Wilberforce Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008 became law Dec. 23, 2008.
The administration also ended the U.S. arms embargo from the earlier war. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said Ethiopia's Temporary Protected Status termination took effect Aug. 18.
The Ethiopia-related national emergency lapsed in September. A Federal Register notice from the Office of Foreign Assets Control says it was not continued beyond Sept. 17. Sanctions on Eritrea's military and ruling party ended with it.
U.S. officials have urged both countries "to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "The last thing the world needs right now is another war," according to Today News Africa.
The Bottom Line
Abiy has announced a caretaker government for Tigray and pledged elections there within six months. The TPLF has rejected its authority as illegitimate.
That election window, alongside fighting in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz, sets the next decision point for any U.S. or congressional response.
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