Why It Matters

Casey Askar (R) and Pia Dandiya (D) emerged from Florida’s Aug. 18 congressional primaries to compete for an open seat in the state’s 22nd Congressional District, setting up a Nov. 3 general election in a district that three major race-rating sources have rated Lean Republican.

Askar won the Republican nomination after competing in a crowded 10-candidate primary, while Dandiya defeated Kaysia Earley in the two-candidate Democratic primary. Dandiya received 68.6% of the Democratic primary vote in the available results.

The district is one of Florida’s competitive House seats following redistricting. The Cook Political Report rates the open seat Lean Republican and gives the district a Republican +4 partisan voting index. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the 270toWin consensus also rated the race Lean Republican as of mid-August.

Outside groups have also signaled interest in the race. Primary-period independent expenditures were relatively limited, but nearly $1.9 million in pending outside commitments had been reported in the available Legis1 data as of Aug. 19. Those commitments suggest outside groups are preparing to spend substantially more around the race than they did during the primary.

The Candidates

Askar emerged from the 10-candidate Republican primary with 30.9% of the vote in the available unofficial count. The businessman and former Marine entered a crowded field seeking the nomination for the newly open seat. Dandiya won the Democratic primary with 68.6% of the vote, compared with 31.4% for Earley. Available results showed Dandiya receiving 25,628 votes to Earley’s 11,735.

The candidates are competing for a district without an incumbent following Florida’s latest round of congressional redistricting. The Cook Political Report lists FL-22 as an open seat with an R+4 partisan voting index and rates the general election Lean Republican.

Fundraising across candidates associated with the race reached $22.5 million as of Aug. 11, according to the supplied FEC data. The primary also attracted some outside spending. America’s Renewal PAC Inc. reported $45,323.24 in independent expenditures supporting Republican Michael Carbonara, covering activities including printing, yard signs, text messaging, canvassing and media placement.

Sierra Club Independent Action reported a $10 expenditure supporting Rep. Lois Frankel (D-FL) for a website endorsement on March 19. Frankel, however, is not a candidate in the current FL-22 race following redistricting. She is running in the redrawn 23rd District, which Cook rates Solid Democratic. The expenditure therefore should not be characterized as spending supporting a candidate in the current FL-22 primary without additional evidence establishing why it was associated with the district in the underlying dataset.

The larger financial story is the outside activity reported as pending. The supplied data show $1.92 million in pending commitments across multiple committees as of Aug. 19. Club for Growth Action accounted for $714,838.98, American Pact for $641,750, American Liberty Foundation for $281,462.02, America’s Renewal PAC for another $77,579.86 and Making Congress Great Again PAC for $48,489.53.

The pending activity included $704,805.68 associated with Askar, $579,372.02 with Carbonara, $418,453.16 with Belinda Keiser, $151,713.45 with Frankel, $48,489.53 with Terri Hasdorff and $13,000 with David Burck. Because several of those candidates did not win the Aug. 18 primaries, and Frankel is running in another district, those pending notices should not be treated as $1.9 million committed to spending in the Askar-Dandiya general election. Instead, they reflect forward-looking activity recorded in the supplied dataset before the primary results determined the nominees.

The district itself has a population of 786,471 and a voting-age population of 641,099, according to the demographic data supplied for the race. White residents account for 51.4% of the population, Hispanic residents 28.4%, Black residents 17.7% and Asian residents 2.7%. About 30.9% of residents are foreign-born.

The median household income is $81,071, while the poverty rate is 11.5%. About 71.7% of housing units are owner-occupied, and the median home value is $416,500. About 38.4% of residents have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

The Bottom Line

Askar begins the general election with an advantage based on the district’s partisan fundamentals, but FL-22 remains part of the competitive House battlefield. The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican and assigns the district an R+4 partisan voting index.

That rating means Republicans have an advantage but does not place the race outside the competitive battlefield. Cook specifically includes Lean Republican seats among races where the political environment could affect the outcome, and its recent House analysis has described seats moving into the Lean Republican category as increasingly competitive.

Askar won a fragmented 10-way Republican primary with 30.9% in the available unofficial count, while Dandiya emerged from a simpler two-person Democratic contest with more than two-thirds of the vote. Their Nov. 3 contest will determine who represents the newly configured open district.

The outside-spending figures also require an important distinction after the primary. Although the supplied data identify approximately $1.9 million in pending activity, much of that money was associated with candidates who did not become the Askar-Dandiya general election nominees. The figures therefore demonstrate substantial outside interest surrounding the race during the election cycle but should not yet be characterized as $1.9 million committed to the general election.

The combination of an open seat, an R+4 partisan lean and significant fundraising and outside-group activity makes FL-22 a competitive race with a Republican advantage rather than a safe Republican seat. Askar enters the fall favored by the major ratings cited in the article, while Dandiya will need to overcome the district’s Republican lean to capture the seat.

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