Why It Matters
Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) won Florida's U.S. Senate special election on Nov. 3, defeating Democratic state Rep. Angela "Angie" Nixon (D-FL) and keeping the seat in Republican hands. Moody, who was appointed to the Senate after Marco Rubio became secretary of state, won her first election to the chamber and will serve the remainder of Rubio's term through January 2029.
Moody's victory was substantially narrower than recent Republican statewide victories in Florida. With nearly all votes counted, she led Nixon by approximately 2.9 percentage points, compared with President Donald Trump's 13.1-point victory in Florida in 2024 and Sen. Rick Scott's (R-FL) 12.8-point reelection margin that year. The result represented a roughly 10-point shift toward Democrats while allowing Republicans to retain both Florida Senate seats.
The outcome came amid a national election in which Democrats regained control of both the U.S. House and Senate. Although Moody retained the seat for Republicans, the party's loss of its Senate majority will change committee leadership, legislative priorities and oversight authority when the new Congress convenes in January.
The Result
With more than 95% of expected votes counted, Decision Desk HQ reported Moody receiving 4,207,774 votes, or 50.87%, compared with Nixon's 3,968,811 votes, or 47.98%, as of 3 a.m. Eastern time Nov. 4. Moody led by 238,963 votes, or approximately 2.9 percentage points. Neil Gillespie, running without party affiliation, received 94,529 votes, or 1.14%. The figures remained unofficial.
The general election certification status remained listed as counting. Multiple news organizations, including NBC News and CBS News, projected Moody's victory before certification.
The Incumbent
Moody took office Jan. 21, 2025, giving her approximately one year and 10 months of Senate service as of Election Day. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) appointed her after Rubio resigned to become secretary of state. Before entering the Senate, Moody served as Florida's attorney general.
Moody serves on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Joint Economic Committee, and Special Committee on Aging, according to her Senate biography. She also serves on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights.
In the 119th Congress, Moody sponsored the STARS Act of 2026 (S. 5398), the SWIPES Act (S. 5229), the Staged Accident Fraud Prevention Act of 2026 (S. 5058), and the TEMP Act (S. 3843). She also cosponsored the Space Ready Act (S. 2622), according to Congress.gov. These measures are examples of her legislative activity, not an exhaustive list.
The Money
Moody raised $14.52 million and held $816,355 in cash on hand as of Oct. 14, while Nixon raised $11.32 million and held $3.27 million in cash on hand as of the same date. Although Moody raised approximately $3.2 million more, Nixon ended the reporting period with nearly four times as much cash available.
All candidates combined reported $63,248,692.95 in receipts across the race, including fundraising by candidates eliminated before the general election. The compiled race data listed $27,840,235.59 in outside spending when pending notices were included, of which $27,166,131.26 consisted of pending notices as of Nov. 4.
Breaking down completed reported outside spending by candidate, Republican-aligned committees reported $625,223.03 supporting Moody and $36,025 opposing her, while Democratic-aligned committees reported $12,856.30 supporting Nixon, with no reported Democratic-side opposition spending against Nixon.
Among the largest pending spenders, Stronger Safer Nation listed $13,507,373.34 in pending notices, including $10,457,866.31 in opposition and $3,049,507.03 in support. New Deal for All, Inc. listed $6,615,618.83 in pending notices, all categorized as opposition, while AB PAC listed $2,596,442.52 in pending support notices.
The Primary Road
Nixon won the Aug. 18 Democratic special primary with 56.06% of the vote, defeating Alexander "Alex" Vindman, who received 43.94% despite spending $16,370,306.93 in campaign disbursements, more than double Nixon's $8,052,585.63. The Democratic primary drew 1,258,973 votes, compared with 1,660,013 in the Republican primary, a difference of 401,040 votes.
Nixon's primary victory placed a progressive Democratic nominee against Moody in a state that had moved increasingly toward Republicans in recent elections. Nixon campaigned on health care affordability, housing costs and economic inequality, while Moody emphasized law enforcement, immigration restrictions and support for Trump's policy agenda.
The Campaign
Two lines of attack defined the general election, with Nixon criticizing Moody's involvement in the Hope Florida controversy and Moody portraying Nixon as too liberal for Florida.
Nixon accused Moody of taking $10 million intended for Medicaid care for sick children and redirecting it into political funds through the Hope Florida program. An Oct. 22 PolitiFact investigation found that DeSantis' administration directed $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to the Hope Florida Foundation, which subsequently transferred funds through nonprofits to political committees opposing ballot initiatives. Moody was Florida's attorney general when her office approved the settlement, but PolitiFact found her involvement unclear and that Nixon's allegation of stealing was unsubstantiated.
Nixon also called for Moody to be jailed in connection with the controversy. PolitiFact reported that no one involved faced criminal charges. A leaked grand jury report described the funds as misappropriated for political activities, but a state appeals court subsequently ordered the findings expunged, concluding that the grand jury had exceeded its authority by accusing individuals of criminal conduct without issuing indictments. Moody denied wrongdoing and characterized the allegations as politically motivated.
Moody's campaign ran an Oct. 6 advertisement claiming Nixon backed a $4 trillion tax increase on tipped workers and older adults. PolitiFact rated the claim Half True on Oct. 20, noting Nixon said she wanted to target tax cuts for wealthy individuals and corporations.
NBC News reported Nov. 3 that Moody's advertisements also characterized Nixon as a socialist and invoked Democratic Socialists of America proposals, including abolishing the police, which Nixon said she did not support. Nixon emphasized health care and housing affordability, while Moody campaigned on law enforcement and Trump's immigration policies.
Pre-Election Indicators
The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rated the race Likely Republican as of Nov. 3, according to the consensus rating at allciv.com. Kalshi displayed a 90.4% market-implied probability for Moody when accessed Nov. 4, although the figure was a live price rather than a dated pre-election quote.
PollsterGraph's polling average, last updated with a Nov. 2 survey, showed Moody at 51.35% and Nixon at 45.48%, a margin of approximately 5.9 percentage points. The Legis1 polling average as of Nov. 2, based on 116 polls, showed Moody at 49.7% and Nixon at 43.6%, a 6.1-point lead. RealClearPolitics ' average covering Oct. 2-30 showed Moody at 49.7% and Nixon at 43.4%, a 6.3-point advantage.
Moody's approximately 2.9-point margin in the unofficial returns was narrower than the margin in all three polling averages. Nixon's nearly 48% vote share also exceeded the Democratic share in Florida's 2024 presidential and Senate elections, despite her defeat.
Access the Legis1 platform for comprehensive political news, data, and insights.
Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article
