Rep. John Carter, the 84-year-old Republican who has held Texas’s 31st Congressional District since 2003, is facing the most crowded primary field of his career. Nine challengers are lined up against him in the TX-31 Republican primary 2026, set for March 3 — and the money flowing into this race tells a clear story about who wants Carter to stay and why.

Carter has raised approximately $1.1 million for the cycle. His nearest competitor, Raymond Hamden, has raised roughly $128,296. The rest of the field is running on fumes. That financial gulf — Carter has pulled in about 8.7 times more than all Republican challengers combined — is the defining feature of this race.

But the composition of Carter’s war chest matters as much as its size.

Who’s Funding John Carter Texas’s 12th-Term Bid

Of Carter’s $1.1 million in total receipts, nearly $387,000 came from political action committees, according to FEC filings. Individual contributions accounted for roughly $272,804. The remainder came from transfers and other receipts.

The PAC money reads like a who’s who of the nation’s defense industrial base. Among the largest contributors at the $5,000 level: General Dynamics Corporation Political Action Committee, BAE Systems Inc. Political Action Committee, CACI International Inc Political Action Committee, and Honeywell International Political Action Committee. Lockheed Martin’s employee PAC contributed $3,500, with Boeing’s PAC adding $1,500. Blue Origin and RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon Technologies) each contributed $1,000.

Carter chairs the House Appropriations Committee’s Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies Subcommittee and sits on the Defense Subcommittee. His district is home to Fort Cavazos — formerly Fort Hood — one of the largest military installations in the world. The companies writing checks to Carter’s campaign are the same companies that build the hardware, software, and infrastructure that the military buys.

Beyond defense, Carter drew contributions from the American Crystal Sugar Company PAC, the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants PAC, Ernst & Young’s PAC, the National Shooting Sports Foundation PAC, and the National Stone, Sand & Gravel Association’s RockPAC. The pattern is consistent: industry groups with business before the Appropriations Committee are investing in the man who sits on it.

On the lobbying side, organizations that spent money lobbying on Carter-related legislation in the 118th Congress included Valero Energy Corp. ($430,000 in lobbying expenditures), Select Medical Holdings Corp. ($140,000), and Sierra Space Corp. ($60,000), among others. According to the available data, 1,005 organizations have lobbied Carter’s office during his tenure.

What the Texas 31st Congressional District Wants — and What Carter Delivers

The district stretches from the affluent northern suburbs of Austin — Round Rock, Georgetown, Cedar Park — up through the military corridor of Killeen, Temple, and Copperas Cove. Its population of roughly 901,458 is younger than the national average (median age 34–37), growing rapidly, and split between two distinct communities.

The southern half, anchored in Williamson County, saw 48.2 percent population growth from 2013 to 2023, making it the fastest growing community in Texas. Median household income there tops $106,000. These are suburban families concerned about property taxes, school quality, and infrastructure.

The northern half revolves around Fort Cavazos and its approximately 45,000 active-duty soldiers, plus tens of thousands of family members and civilian employees. About 72,000 veterans live in the district — roughly 11 to 12 percent of the adult population. VA healthcare, military housing, and base funding are not abstract policy questions here. They are economic lifelines.

Carter’s legislative record inlcudes his Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act passed the House, as reported by TexasGOPVote. The Hill covered the bill advancing out of committee the month before. Carter also secured federal funding for a Williamson County water project, as reported by KVUE in January 2026.

But Carter’s constituent engagement has drawn criticism. Local outlets including the Temple Daily Telegram and Killeen Daily Herald reported that he declined to attend town hall meetings in March 2025. KXXV covered constituents holding a "people’s town hall" without him. An opinion piece in the Austin American-Statesman called him a "fair-weather friend of the U.S. Constitution."

The TX-31 Election 2026 Challengers: Underfunded but Numerous

The nine Texas Republican primary candidates challenging Carter represent a wide range of backgrounds — and a wide range of financial viability.

Raymond Hamden leads the challenger pack with $128,296 raised, making him the only opponent with six-figure fundraising.

Dr. David Berry, an Austin-area physician, has raised $36,800 but has spent all of it, according to Ballotpedia. The Killeen Daily Herald covered his entry into the race.

Valentina Gomez Noriega, a Colombian-born real estate investor who previously ran for office in Missouri, reported raising $28,590 in her pre-primary filing but spending $40,300 — with approximately $28,000 of that reportedly paid to herself, according to political data analyst Rob Pyers on X. She has also been banned from Williamson County GOP events after confronting a political opponent at a party gala, as reported by KXAN.

Elvis Lossa, an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq and later worked as a staffer for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and in the Texas House, has raised just $10,851. Despite what may be the strongest résumé among challengers for a military-heavy district, his fundraising has not matched his biography.

Steven Dowell has raised $14,744, according to Open Campaign. The remaining candidates — including Vince Shlomi, the ShamWow television pitchman whose entry was covered by the Dallas Morning News and TMZ — have filed minimal or no financial reports.

John Carter Reelection Odds: What the Numbers Say

No traditional polls exist for this race, which is typical for House primaries. But the structural indicators all point in one direction.

PredictIt’s TX-31 market prices Carter at 94 cents — implying a roughly 94 percent probability of winning the nomination. Gomez Noriega trades at 6 cents. Everyone else is negligible.

Carter holds a Trump endorsement, as reported by the Austin American-Statesman. He won his last primary with 65.3 percent and his last general election with 64.4 percent. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as safe Republican. The district has never elected a Democrat.

The crowded field paradoxically helps Carter. With nine challengers splitting the anti-incumbent vote, no single opponent is expected to consolidate enough support to force a meaningful contest — unless the race goes to a runoff, which would require Carter to fall below 50 percent.

The Bottom Line

The money in this race tells a straightforward story. Defense contractors and industry PACs are investing in a 22-year incumbent who sits on the committee that writes their checks. His challengers, collectively, have raised a fraction of what Carter pulls from PACs alone. The TX-31 election 2026 is Carter’s to lose — and the financial math suggests he won’t.