Why It Matters
Federal agencies spending roughly $126 million to combat firearms trafficking to Mexico cannot demonstrate whether that money is working, according to a new audit published Sept. 28 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lacks goals, desired outcomes, and performance measures with baselines and targets. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) discontinued measures established in fiscal 2023, while the State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) lacks baselines, targets, and results for some measures. ATF reported that 68%, or 82,785, of firearms recovered in Mexico and traced from January 2020 through December 2024 had a U.S. source.
The Big Picture
Estimates indicate hundreds of thousands of firearms are trafficked from the United States into Mexico annually. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) seek semiautomatic AR-15s, AK-47s, and .50-caliber rifles, which they often convert to fully automatic weapons. They acquire firearms primarily through straw purchasers and middlemen who smuggle them through border ports of entry.
In February 2025, the State Department designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized 4,944 firearms bound for Mexico at land ports of entry from January 2020 through December 2025. However, its data system does not consistently identify the rifle types TCOs seek, and some officers may struggle to distinguish them.
DHS's Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and ATF disrupt trafficking networks, while INL supports Mexican law enforcement. ATF and INL provided approximately $126 million for anti-trafficking efforts from fiscal 2020 through fiscal 2025. GAO conducted the congressionally requested review by reviewing agency records and interviewing U.S. officials in Washington, Texas, and Arizona, and U.S. and Mexican officials in Mexico City.
The Bottom Line
GAO issued four recommendations, all open at publication. DHS agreed to establish objectives and performance measures for HSI and CBP but disagreed with improving CBP's collection of analyzable firearm-type data. GAO maintained that recommendation was valid.
The remaining recommendations call for ATF to establish performance measures for Operation Southbound and INL to develop baselines, targets and results for its programs. Agencies agreed with three of the four recommendations. Without these improvements, GAO warned, agencies cannot determine whether resources support the most effective programs, potentially resulting in waste and missed opportunities to combat trafficking.
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