Why It Matters

Recent U.S. intelligence reporting indicates that Iran has grown more confident in its ability to sustain attacks in the Middle East and may be considering a significant escalation after six months of war with the U.S. Iran also used cluster munition ballistic missiles in an attack on U.S. forces in Jordan this week, underscoring the continued risks to American personnel in the region. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will hold a closed briefing on intelligence matters on September 15 as lawmakers assess evolving threats involving Iran and other national security issues. 

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its annual threat assessment in March. The intelligence community assessed that Iran's strategic position had been significantly degraded by the war but that the regime remained intact and could seek to rebuild its military, missile and drone capabilities over time.

The Hearing

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will hold a closed briefing titled "Intelligence Matters" on September 15. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) chairs the committee, with Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) serving as vice chairman. 

Because the briefing is closed, the committee has not publicly identified participants or the specific intelligence matters that will be discussed. The committee's current membership includes Cotton, Warner, Sens. James Risch (R-ID), Susan Collins (R-ME), John Cornyn (R-TX), Jerry Moran (R-KS), James Lankford (R-OK), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Todd Young (R-IN), Ted Budd (R-NC), Ron Wyden (D-OR), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Angus King (I-ME), Michael Bennet (D-CO), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), and Mark Kelly (D-AZ), along with four ex officio members.

Broader Context

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said in March that Iran had not attempted to rebuild its uranium enrichment capability following U.S. strikes, while subsequent reporting has said Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency likewise stated that enrichment had not resumed. The IAEA has also reported no satellite evidence of renewed enrichment, although it has lacked full access to Iranian nuclear facilities and cannot independently verify all nuclear material. 

President Donald Trump said during his State of the Union address in February that Iran wanted to restart its nuclear program and was developing long-range missiles that could eventually threaten the U.S. homeland. He simultaneously repeated his earlier claim that U.S. strikes had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, making his argument that Tehran was attempting to rebuild it a distinction between the condition of the program immediately after the strikes and Iran's subsequent intentions. 

The latest intelligence-community assessment also said Iran had demonstrated technology that could support development of a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile before 2035 if Tehran chose to pursue that capability, while noting that the assessment could change based on the impact of U.S. strikes on Iran's missile infrastructure.

The Bottom Line

The closed briefing will give senators an opportunity to review classified intelligence on emerging national security threats as the war with Iran continues and recent assessments raise questions about Tehran's military capabilities, nuclear program and potential for further escalation.

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