Why It Matters

Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is stagnating or declining across the region, according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report updated August 11 that compiles data from four major nongovernmental democracy indices. The findings carry weight because U.S. policy has long prioritized democracy promotion in the hemisphere, yet the picture emerging from these indices is one of stagnation at best, decline at worst, with serious implications for bilateral relations and foreign aid priorities. The Trump administration has pledged to condition positive bilateral relations on favored political leaders prevailing in elections, a stance that collides directly with a region where democratic backsliding is accelerating in several key countries.

The Big Picture

The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) found that the LAC region showed no pronounced trend during its review period from February 2023 through January 2025, describing conditions as stagnation or continuity. Most countries in LAC remain in the defective democracy category according to BTI, with enduring weaknesses in the rule of law, party systems, and political integration. BTI identified that 56 percent of all states under review are governed autocratically, and two-thirds of countries assessed since 2006 are now less democratic than they were 20 years ago. The LAC region has been in democratic decline since peaking in the early 2000s, according to the Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem), though 71 percent of the LAC population lived in democracies, making it the second most democratic region in the world.

Freedom House classified 23 out of 35 countries in the Americas as free in 2025. Only six countries earned score improvements for the year according to Freedom House, while 12 registered score declines. Major threats to freedom in the Americas include criminal violence and mounting restrictions on civic space, according to Freedom House.

The region's trajectory masks sharp disparities. Uruguay was ranked 1 of 137 globally by BTI and received a score of 97 out of 100 from Freedom House. Bolivia experienced an upgrade from Partly Free to Free status in 2025, a status it last held in 2002, and V-Dem classified Bolivia as a U-turn democratizer. Guatemala moved from hardline autocracy to moderate autocracy according to BTI, also earning U-turn democratizer status from V-Dem. Honduras and the Dominican Republic are noted by BTI as positive outliers showing measured progress.

Conversely, autocratization continues in six LAC countries, accounting for 24 percent of the region: Argentina, El Salvador, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru. BTI identified El Salvador as experiencing the steepest democratic decline in the LAC region, a finding echoed by Freedom House, which reported that El Salvador had the largest decline in score for the second consecutive year. V-Dem found that El Salvador is continuing autocratization. Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela are consistently rated among the worst in the LAC region across all four democracy indices.

Mexico was classified as a highly defective democracy by BTI, a hybrid regime by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and an electoral autocracy with continuing autocratization by V-Dem. Freedom House classified Mexico as Partly Free with a score of 58 out of 100. Colombia experienced the steepest score decline in 2025 according to EIU. Haiti is classified as hardline autocracy by BTI, authoritarian regime by EIU, Not Free with a score of 22 out of 100 by Freedom House, and closed autocracy by V-Dem.

The Bottom Line

Congress faces a choice between maintaining its democracy promotion commitments and managing bilateral relationships in a region where democratic deterioration is concentrating in strategically important countries. The Trump administration's approach to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, ranging from sanctions to diplomatic pressure, remains a key flashpoint in hemispheric policy. Yet the indices reveal that democratic gains in the region are isolated, fragile, and outnumbered by countries sliding toward autocracy. Congressional appropriators and authorizers can use the report's multi-index rankings to assess where democracy promotion funding through USAID and other mechanisms is most needed and to apply conditionality to countries experiencing democratic regression.

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