The Donors Behind Edward J. Markey and Seth Moulton

Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-MA) and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA-6) are competing in a contest where outside groups have already deployed millions to shape the race.

Moulton has raised over $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, building momentum behind a message centered on generational change. His top donors include AIPAC, Harvard University, and Fidelity Investments. However, Moulton announced he would return AIPAC donations and refuse further contributions, citing disagreement with the pro-Israel group's support for the current Israeli government. He had received $49,967 from AIPAC PAC and its super PAC, United Democracy Project. Over his career, Moulton has taken more than $2 million from corporate PACs.

Markey, by contrast, has been raising at a slower pace than Moulton and operating at a net loss in recent quarters. Outside spending has heavily targeted him: Advance Progress spent $1,482,274.93 opposing Markey as of September 1, 2026, with an additional $4,112,663.84 in pending notices.

Commonwealth Together PAC spent $630,000 opposing Moulton as of September 1, 2026, and had $1,592,370.33 in pending notices as of September 1, 2026. In total, outside spending in the race reached $2,112,364.93 as of September 1, with approximately $7,835,316.10 including pending notices.

An estimated $20.56 million has been spent on the Massachusetts Senate race over the last two years, a substantial sum in a state with approximately 4.92 million registered voters.

The Closing Argument: Who Wins

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race as Solid Democratic. Kalshi prediction markets give Democrats a 97.4 percent probability of winning the seat as of September 1, 2026.

According to a UMass Amherst poll, Markey leads Moulton 63 percent to 28 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. The poll shows Markey with commanding leads across key constituencies: younger voters back Markey over Moulton by 31 points (53-22), women support Markey by 41 points (65-24), college-educated voters favor Markey by 33 points (62-29), and people of color support Markey by 20 points (49-29). Moulton has trailed badly in polling despite his generational-change message gaining national traction.

Moulton has compared Markey to President Biden, whose late-term decline Moulton himself publicly called out. Markey is running as the more progressive candidate despite being the older one. The Democratic primary on September 1, 2026 will determine who faces the Republican nominee in the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Massachusetts voters, approximately 66.6 percent of whom are unenrolled (independent), will weigh these competing visions in a state where approximately 47 percent of adults hold a bachelor's degree or higher. The winner will be heavily favored in the general election on November 3, 2026, in a state where Markey won 66.2 percent of the vote in the 2020 Senate race.

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