When it comes to politics, big money and secret money tell a story. From now until Election Day, Legis1 will be publishing articles and graphs which draw from our data. ANd today the headliner is Michigan.
Democratic-aligned outside groups booked 63 percent of their $4.02 million in airtime today in Michigan. The pattern is consistent with one group carrying much of that load: House Majority PAC accounted for $1.44 million of the Democratic-aligned Michigan total.
Republican-aligned groups booked $19.42 million today against $4.02 million for Democratic-aligned groups, a ratio of 4.8 to 1.
Yesterday, Republican-aligned groups booked $13.99 million against $6.20 million for Democratic-aligned groups, a ratio of 2.3 to 1. The gap widened from $7.79 million yesterday to $15.40 million today. Over the trailing seven days, Republican-aligned groups booked $38.53 million and Democratic-aligned groups $12.86 million; cycle to date, the totals stand at $580.90 million and $418.57 million, respectively.
Michigan drew $6.89 million in total net booked airtime, with Republican-aligned groups accounting for $4.36 million and Democratic-aligned groups $2.53 million. Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, booked $3.16 million in Michigan across 18 filings. The Michigan U.S. Senate race is rated Lean Democratic.
Florida's total was $5.68 million, with $5.13 million tied to Republican sponsors and about $554,000 to Democratic sponsors. No Going Back PAC recorded $4.09 million across 25 filings tied to Florida races. Florida's 22nd and 25th House districts are rated Toss-up and Lean Democratic, respectively.
Texas drew $2.36 million, all from Republican-aligned groups, with No Going Back PAC accounting for $1.79 million. In Texas's 28th and 34th districts, both rated Lean Democratic, Republican-aligned groups booked $641,000 and $991,000 respectively, with no Democratic-aligned response recorded in either.
Both sides are retreating from the Peach State. The Georgia U.S. Senate race, rated Likely Democratic, shows a net total of minus $268,000. WinSenate, a Democratic-sponsored filer, recorded a $225,000 decrease in Georgia, and Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican-sponsored filer, recorded a $22,000 cancellation in the Atlanta market.
For the week starting October 19, Democratic-aligned groups have $78.02 million booked against $73.23 million for Republican-aligned groups. The week starting October 26 shows $80.60 million Democratic-aligned against $67.34 million Republican-aligned. The week starting November 2 narrows to $7.65 million Republican-aligned and $5.62 million Democratic-aligned. A Republican-aligned response to the Democratic forward-book lead would appear as added bookings in those October weeks, most visibly in Michigan.
Methodology and caveats
The source is the FCC political files of broadcast, cable, radio and satellite stations, compiled by Legis1. Each record is a filed change to an ad reservation, so figures represent airtime booked, not money spent; cuts and cancellations subtract from the daily net. Sides follow the filing's own classification of each sponsor as Republican-aligned or Democratic-aligned, applied to super PACs, hybrid PACs and 501(c)(4) groups.
National party committees are excluded from the sides' totals and shown only as a comparator, at $2.04 million for Republicans and $2.15 million for Democrats today.
Digital and streaming buys, groups that never file with stations, and candidates' own buys are excluded. Filings typically appear in the FCC file within a day or two of the order.
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