Michigan drew just shy of $4 miilion in airtime booked today, up from $306,000 yesterday, with Democratic-aligned groups supplying $2.75 million of it against $1.23 million from Republican-aligned groups. Both sides booking heavily is consistent with Michigan being treated as a contested market, and operatives tracking outside money should note that Republican-aligned groups currently lead the forward book there for flights still to run. ​

Republican-aligned groups booked $7.62 million today against $6.86 million for Democratic-aligned groups, a ratio of 1.1 to 1 in Republicans' favor. Yesterday Republican-aligned groups booked $2.99 million against a Democratic net cut of $471,000, so the gap narrowed from $3.46 million to $757,000 with Republicans still ahead. Both sides are running above their usual pace.

Democratic-aligned groups' net airtime booked per day, last 14 days. Net new broadcast airtime booked per day; cuts and cancellations subtract. Oct 21, 2026 -$61.6K.

Republican-aligned groups' net airtime booked per day, last 14 days. Net new broadcast airtime booked per day; cuts and cancellations subtract. Oct 21, 2026 $348.2K.

House Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with House Democratic leadership, booked $2.13 million in Michigan, with WinSenate, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic leadership, adding $620,000. Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, booked $963,000 on the other side, with No Going Back PAC adding $269,000. The Detroit market carried $3.09 million of the state's $3.98 million total.

The tussle for eyeballs for the open Michigan U.S. Senate seat is between Democratic nominee Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and MAGA-aligned Mike Rogers.

Then there is the Ohio U.S. Senate seat also rated a Toss-up, with Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted as nominees. Democratic-aligned groups lead Ohio's forward book at $13.79 million against $10.51 million for Republican-aligned groups for the next two broadcast weeks.

The money has all but disappeared in Georgia where the U.S. Senate race is rated "Likely Democratic," with Jon Ossoff facing GOP Mike Collins.

Largest races among the filings that name one. Net airtime booked by race, counting only filings that name a candidate or print the race; airtime filed for a state without a race is in the state totals, not here. IA-SEN $1.4M, KS-SEN $719.2K, WI-01 $300K, TX-28 $198.7K, KY-06 $188.1K, TX-34 $177.6K, NE-SEN $139.2K, PA-08 $89.2K. Covers 22% of the net dollars; records without a Race are not shown.

Looking Ahead

The week starting October 26 shows $73.67 million booked by Republican-aligned groups against $84.47 million by Democratic-aligned groups; the week starting November 2 shows $8.28 million against $6.12 million. A Republican-aligned response would look like new bookings in Ohio, where Democratic-aligned groups lead the near-term book; a Democratic-aligned response would look like additions in Michigan, where Republican-aligned groups currently lead.

Methodology and caveats

The figures come from FCC political files covering broadcast, cable, radio and satellite stations, which do not include digital or streaming advertising; the filings classify super PACs, hybrid PACs and 501(c)(4) groups as Republican-aligned or Democratic-aligned, and national party committees are reported separately and not counted in either side's total. Digital and streaming ads are not filed with the FCC, groups that buy no station airtime never appear in its political files, and candidates' own airtime purchases are not in these figures. Filings typically appear within a day or two of the order.

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