And The Winner Is
Abdul El-Sayed has been declared the winner of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat making him the first Muslim Senator in the United States. It was one of the fiercest and most contested battles in this year's midterms with Abdul El-Sayed, the doctor and progressive insurgent defeating the Republican Mike Rogers to become the country’s first Muslim senator.
El-Sayed’s victory adds to a decisive Democratic majority in the Senate after the party wrested control of the upper chamber on Tuesday with shock victories in Texas, Kansas and South Carolina. He credited a movement built over a year and a half of campaigning in Michigan’s biggest cities and smallest towns, and said voters gave him strength in his lowest moments.
His opponent and detractors, including Donald Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, led a largely Islamophobic campaign against him. with the president alleging he was a “jihadist” and that he would need to walk through a metal detector to get into the Senate.
El-Sayed said his denigrators chose to be divisive rather than address the cost of gas and groceries because they didn’t have an answer to the problems he said they created.
Money and Outside Spending
El-Sayed raised $53.8 million in total receipts, more than double Rogers's $23.0 million, yet Rogers entered the general election with more cash on hand: $3.9 million to El-Sayed's $2.7 million. El-Sayed outspent Rogers in total disbursements by approximately $31.7 million — $51.1 million to $19.4 million.
Outside groups reported $81.18 million in confirmed independent expenditures across the race, as of November 4, 2026. The breakdown by party shows a lopsided picture on both sides of the ledger:
- Democratic-aligned groups spent $33.1 million supporting El-Sayed and $22.1 million opposing him.
- Republican-aligned groups spent $14.3 million supporting Rogers and $11.7 million opposing him.
The largest total among the top spenders was the United Democracy Project ('UDP'), at $30.7 million, including $20.1 million in opposition and $10.5 million in support. A Stronger Michigan reported $17.3 million, nearly all in support of El-Sayed. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) reported $7.1 million in spending in the race, with $6.8 million in support and $0.3 million in opposition.
Among the individual independent expenditure filings in the record: EDF Action Votes filed two confirmed expenditures totaling $1,027,398 opposing Rogers, covering a digital ad buy and digital ad production paid to AL Media, LLC, both dated July 28, 2026. MoveOn.org Political Action filed multiple confirmed expenditures supporting El-Sayed in the primary, covering printing, text messaging, online advertising, and television advertising. AFP Action filed confirmed expenditures supporting Rogers for the general election, including media production payments to FP1 Strategies LLC and Targeted Victory LLC.
Pre-Election Indicators
The consensus race rating as of October 23, 2026, was Lean Democratic, per the 270towin consensus; the Cook Political Report rated it a toss-up as of the same date, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of October 28, 2026.
Prediction markets on Kalshi gave El-Sayed a 79.41 percent probability of winning as of November 3, 2026, the day of the election, based on $25.6 million in market volume.
The Legis1 polling consensus as of November 2, 2026, showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 50.4 percent to 45.2 percent, a margin of 5.2 points, drawn from 247 polls.
El-Sayed received 152 tracked endorsements, more than any other candidate in the race; Rogers received 68, according to the race record as of November 4, 2026.
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