Why it Matters
In one of the most closely watched and competitive races of the midterm elections, Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health administrator, faces former FBI special agent and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate contest to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). El-Sayed has been campaigning on a Medicare-for-All and anti-war platform focused on affordability, while Rogers has emphasized his law enforcement and national security experience. The race is central to the parties' efforts to control the Senate.
The contest has become a test of the political influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), whose affiliated Super PAC, United Democracy Project, spent more than $30 million supporting Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) during the Democratic primary. El-Sayed defeated Stevens despite that spending and has continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza, which he has described as genocide.
El-Sayed has linked Rogers to President Donald Trump on economic issues, including rising living costs, the war with Iran, and tariffs affecting trade with Canada. Rogers, meanwhile, has increasingly focused on El-Sayed's positions on Israel, his progressive politics and allegations about his connections to Islamist organizations.
Show Us The Money
Disclosed spending in the Michigan Senate race topped $205 million by Oct. 2, according to Bridge Michigan. Republicans had outspent Democrats $78 million to $63 million as of Oct. 10, a $15 million advantage, according to AdImpact figures cited by Bridge Michigan.
An AIPAC-linked super PAC resumed its involvement in the race after spending heavily against El-Sayed during the Democratic primary. The New York Times reported that United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC, planned to transfer up to $9 million to Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC supporting Rogers. The contributions came after the Oct. 14 Federal Election Commission disclosure deadline, meaning the funding could remain outside publicly available campaign finance reports until after Election Day.
The late funding also coincided with AIPAC's announcement that it would stop directly endorsing candidates and making contributions through its traditional political action committee. The organization said it would continue supporting candidates through United Democracy Project and its network of individual donors. The decision followed growing criticism of AIPAC's political spending and its role in Democratic primaries.
AIPAC's continued financial involvement in Michigan illustrates the distinction between ending direct candidate contributions and continuing independent political spending. NBC News also reported on the super PAC's spending in the Michigan Senate race.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) transferred $1 million to support El-Sayed a day after news emerged of the major AIPAC contribution supporting Rogers. Sanders also called on other Democrats to contribute to El-Sayed's campaign to counter the influx of funding supporting Rogers. Roughly one week earlier, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) also transferred $1 million to support El-Sayed.
The Closing Argument
The race has become increasingly contentious, with Rogers and Republican allies escalating efforts to link El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed has rejected those allegations and publicly denounced the Egyptian organization at a campaign rally. No evidence has been established that El-Sayed is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
The allegations became a central point of contention during the candidates' Oct. 21 debate. Rogers accused El-Sayed of being influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood and questioned his loyalty to the United States, describing him as a national security risk. El-Sayed rejected the accusations and criticized Rogers for questioning his commitment to the Constitution.
If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate, and he has drawn criticism from Trump and Republican allies over his religion and views on Israel. At a campaign appearance in Caro, Michigan, he answered a question about the Muslim Brotherhood by pointing to constitutional protections for religious freedom.
The rhetoric has exposed divisions among Michigan voters. The Associated Press reported that some Jewish Democrats in Oakland County remain reluctant to support El-Sayed, while others have criticized Rogers' attacks as fearmongering. El-Sayed has also faced criticism over previous appearances with streamer Hasan Piker and his initial response to an attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, for which he subsequently apologized to those who found his comments hurtful.
At the same time, Arab American leaders in Dearborn who supported Trump in the presidential election have criticized Republican attacks on El-Sayed. Bishara Bahbah, who helped organize Trump's outreach to Arab American voters, said attacks based on a candidate's religion were unacceptable. Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud also criticized Republican rhetoric linking Muslim politicians to terrorist organizations.
The candidates have offered sharply different economic and foreign policy messages. El-Sayed has emphasized affordability, criticizing Trump administration policies on tariffs, energy prices, and the conflict with Iran. During the final debate, he portrayed Rogers as closely aligned with Trump. Rogers has sought to appeal to moderate Democrats and Stevens supporters who disagree with El-Sayed's positions on Israel or his broader progressive agenda.
The Bottom Line
Several election forecasters and polls have reflected a closely contested race. Sabato's Crystal Ball changed its Michigan rating from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on Sept. 22. Inside Elections' polling average showed El-Sayed at 45% and Rogers at 44%. A Marist poll released Oct. 21, based on interviews conducted Oct. 15-18, showed El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 48% among likely voters, a difference within the poll's margin of error.
Sabato's analysis noted that El-Sayed could underperform a typical Democratic Senate candidate despite the rating change. The 2024 Michigan Senate election, won by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) over Rogers, was decided 48.64% to 48.30%, underscoring how narrowly divided the state's electorate was in that contest.
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