Why it Matters
It is one of the most closely-watched and hard scrabbled races of this year's midterm elections.
Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI), a physician and former public-health administrator, faces former FBI special agent and former U.S. representative Mike Rogers (R-MI) in a race drawing heavy outside spending. El-Sayed is running on a Medicare for All platform, while Rogers is pitching himself as a law-enforcement and national-security figure. The race, tracked on Legis1, sits at the center of the fight for Senate control.
Show Us The Money
Disclosed spending in the Michigan Senate race topped $205 million by October 2, according to Bridge Michigan. Republicans had outspent Democrats $78 million to $63 million as of October 10, a $15 million advantage, per AdImpact figures cited by Bridge Michigan.
An AIPAC-tied super PAC resumed spending with mailers targeting El-Sayed. A New York TImes report stated that with a little more than a week to go, the pro-Israel lobby was planning to contribute as much as $9 million to defeat the Democratic nominee for Senate. NBC News reported. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) transferred $1 million to support El-Sayed a day after news of a major AIPAC donation supporting Rogers. Sanders also called upon other Dems to shower money into El Sayed's campaign to counter the barrage of funds for Rogers.
The Closing Argument
The race has become increasingly nasty with Rogers and Republican allies escalating efforts to try to link El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood. These are unfounded allegations, with El Sayed publically denouncing the Egyptian group at a campaign rally.
Forecasters lean toward El-Sayed but stop short of a firm call. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Michigan from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on September 22. Inside Elections' polling average had El-Sayed ahead 45 percent to 44 percent. A Marist poll conducted October 21 showed El-Sayed leading 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters.
Sabato's analysis noted El-Sayed could underperform a typical Democratic Senate candidate even as it moved the rating in his direction. The 2024 Michigan Senate race, won by Elissa Slotkin over Rogers, was decided 48.64 percent to 48.30 percent, leaving both candidates almost no margin for error in 2026.
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