Alme Wins Montana Senate as Independent and Democrat Split Vote

The Result

The Montana secretary of state's unofficial results feed continued counting ballots Nov. 4, with no certified result available.

Associated Press returns published by Fox News, with approximately 83% of the expected vote counted, showed Alme receiving 200,711 votes, or 48.2%, compared with Bodnar's 158,707 votes, or 38.1%. Alme led Bodnar by 42,004 votes, or approximately 10.1 percentage points. Bankhead finished third with 49,624 votes, or 11.9%, while Libertarian Kyle Austin received 7,547 votes, or 1.8%.

The Associated Press called the race for Alme at 12:54 a.m. Mountain time Nov. 4, when approximately 78% of the vote had been counted. At that point, Alme had 47.7%, Bodnar had 38.6%, Bankhead had 11.9% and Austin had 1.8%, according to Montana Free Press.

Bankhead's vote share was larger than the roughly 11-point margin separating Alme and Bodnar in the later count. Bodnar and Bankhead together received approximately 50% of the vote, compared with Alme's 48.2%. However, their combined vote share does not establish that Bodnar would have defeated Alme in a two-candidate race, because voters' preferences and turnout could have differed without Bankhead on the ballot.

The Incumbent's Legacy

The seat opened because Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) did not seek reelection. According to Congress.gov and Daines' Senate office, he first took office in the House in 2013 and began serving in the Senate in 2015, totaling approximately 13 years in federal office.

In the 119th Congress, Daines sponsored several bills, including the ADAPT Act (S. 5616), the DRIVE Act (S. 1696), the Protecting Life on College Campus Act of 2025 (S. 207) and the GAZA Act (S. 1159).

According to a Jan. 6, 2025, announcement from Daines' Senate office, he served in the 119th Congress on the Finance Committee, Foreign Relations Committee, Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Indian Affairs Committee.

Money

Bodnar raised $4.92 million and spent $4.34 million, compared with Alme's $3.01 million raised and $2.41 million spent. Alme reported $602,738 in cash on hand, compared with Bodnar's $580,921. Bodnar raised approximately 63% more than Alme and spent approximately 80% more, but finished the reporting period with less cash available.

Bankhead ran a substantially smaller campaign. Montana Free Press reported that she had less than $24,000 available for her campaign in August, underscoring the financial disparity between the Democratic nominee and the better-funded independent challenger. Despite that difference, Bankhead ultimately received nearly 12% of the statewide vote.

Outside spending presented a different financial picture.

Through Oct. 14, outside groups reported $2.67 million in spending supporting or opposing Alme, including $2.45 million in support and $217,737 in opposition. Spending associated with Bodnar included $140,552 in support and $1.97 million in opposition, leaving approximately $1.83 million more in reported spending against him than for him.

The AllCiv race record listed $9.24 million in completed disclosed independent expenditures and $22.97 million when pending notices through Nov. 4 were included. The larger figure includes expenditures not yet reflected in completed disclosures and should not be treated as a fully reconciled Federal Election Commission spending total.

Among the largest outside spenders by completed totals, More Jobs, Less Government reported $3.92 million, including $2.98 million in opposition spending. Montana Freedom PAC reported $352,096 in total spending, including $134,483 in support, while Americans for Prosperity Action reported $2.13 million in support.

Campaign Exchanges

The race's sharpest public arguments centered on partisanship, foreign policy, and whether Democratic voters should support Bankhead or the independent Bodnar.

According to Montana Free Press coverage dated Oct. 19, Bodnar alleged during a debate that Montana politicians had rigged the Republican primary to place Alme on the ballot and that the political system supporting Alme was accountable to corporate interests. Those were Bodnar's allegations, not independently established findings.

At an Oct. 11 debate covered by Montana Free Press, Bodnar argued that Alme would give the Iran war a "blank check" and criticized congressional Republicans for allowing the conflict to continue. Alme countered that a senator who refused to caucus with either major party would lack committee assignments, leaving Montana "seriously underrepresented."

Montana Free Press also reported July 30 that Republican-aligned PAC advertisements targeted Bodnar's record as University of Montana president. The reporting did not establish that Alme made those allegations personally.

Bankhead, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and political newcomer, faced pressure from Democratic officials to withdraw and support Bodnar. Twenty-two Democratic state legislators urged her to leave the race, while prominent Democrats, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, endorsed Bodnar rather than their party's nominee. Bankhead refused to withdraw and maintained her candidacy through Election Day.

Montana Public Radio reported that Bodnar and Bankhead competed for overlapping centrist and left-leaning voters. Bankhead emphasized issues including housing affordability and health care, while Bodnar presented himself as an independent alternative to the two major parties.

Pre-Election Indicators

The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all classified the seat as Solid Republican, according to the race record's Nov. 3 consensus rating. Cook's own page listed a February 2025 update date for its rating. Kalshi listed Alme at 91% in its Montana Senate prediction market, although the retrieved market page did not identify the date of that price.

The Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 23 showed Alme leading Bodnar by 10.2 percentage points, 41.1% to 30.9%, with Bankhead at 17.2%. RealClearPolling listed individual surveys conducted through Oct. 15-18 but did not publish a final polling average.

Bankhead's approximately 12% election-night vote share was about five percentage points below the Legis1 polling average, while Bodnar's roughly 38% share was approximately seven points above his polling average. These comparisons remain preliminary because vote counting was incomplete and the polling figures reflect surveys conducted before Election Day.

What's Next

Montana election officials will continue counting and canvassing ballots before certifying the results. Although Bodnar has conceded and the Associated Press has called the race for Alme, the unofficial vote totals remain subject to change.

Alme is expected to succeed Daines when the new Congress convenes in January, joining a Senate controlled by Democrats. Republicans will retain Montana's seat but lose control of the chamber, changing the committee assignments and legislative environment the state's next senator will enter.

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