Why It Matters
A recent Congressional Research Service report examines the Navy's MQ-25 Stingray program, a carrier-based uncrewed aerial vehicle designed to perform aerial refueling and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. The MQ-25 Stingray would be the Defense Department's first uncrewed aerial refueling system.
But the Government Accountability Office cautions that starting Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP), which is a defense acquisition term for producing a small initial quantity of a military system, before adequate testing is finished will create a cost risk.
The Big Picture
The MQ-25 traces its lineage to a 1999 Navy and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency initiative for a carrier-based uncrewed combat aircraft. The Navy shifted the program's focus from combat to refueling missions in 2016, and Boeing was selected as the prime contractor in 2018. The first developmental flight occurred in April, with the Navy approving low-rate initial production in May.
The first flight was originally planned for 2021. Under a revised baseline adopted in 2024, it was postponed to 2025. Initial operational capability is now estimated at 2029, representing a four-year delay from the original plan and a two-year slip from the 2024 revised schedule. The Navy attributes these delays to production challenges stemming from technical risk, schedule changes, and a labor strike.
The cost picture is equally complex. The Defense Department's 2026 Modernized Selected Acquisition Report estimated total acquisition cost at $19.4 billion, with a unit cost of $255.8 million per aircraft. The GAO's 2026 estimate of $16.6 billion represents a 4% increase from the GAO's 2025 estimate. The GAO attributed part of the cost growth to Navy efforts to replace obsolete components.
A significant concern emerged from a 2023 Defense Department Inspector General audit warning that the Navy's plan to begin low-rate initial production before completing developmental and operational testing posed significant risk of future cost increases and delays. The Navy proceeded anyway, beginning production in May. Testing is projected to continue through the end of fiscal year 2029. The GAO has similarly warned of cost risks if production continues ahead of sufficient testing, noting this concurrency problem has historically plagued major defense programs.
The Bottom Line
Congress previously provided $100 million in mandatory fiscal year 2025 funding to accelerate production under the reconciliation law, but the Defense Department did not request reconciliation funding for the fiscal year 2027 cycle. The program of record calls for 76 total aircraft, including 67 operational and nine test and developmental platforms.
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