Why It Matters

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) won New Hampshire's U.S. Senate election on Nov. 3, defeating Republican John E. Sununu and keeping the seat in Democratic hands. The Associated Press called the race for Pappas, whose victory helped Democrats regain control of the Senate. ​

Pappas will succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), preserving Democratic representation in a competitive state Republicans had targeted as a pickup opportunity. His victory also makes him the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate.

The election featured substantial campaign spending, attacks over Sununu's ties to Washington industries and Pappas' congressional record, and competing arguments about President Donald Trump's economic and foreign policies.

The Result

Pappas defeated Sununu in the Nov. 3 general election, according to the Associated Press. Sununu conceded the race shortly after polls closed.

In an Associated Press results snapshot published early Nov. 4, Pappas received 331,447 votes, or 56.21%, compared with Sununu's 247,329 votes, or 41.94%. Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante received 10,922 votes, or 1.85%.

Pappas led Sununu by 84,118 votes, approximately 14.3 percentage points, in that reporting snapshot. The figures remained unofficial, with approximately 90% of votes reported. They do not represent a certified final margin.

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The seat was open because incumbent Shaheen did not seek reelection. Shaheen took office Jan. 3, 2009, and has served nearly 18 years in the Senate.

The Incumbent's Record

Shaheen serves as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies.

She also serves on the full Appropriations Committee, Armed Services Committee, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee, and Select Committee on Ethics, according to official Senate committee assignments.

In the 119th Congress, her legislative record included:

  • S. 5633, the STEP Improvement Act of 2026, which Shaheen introduced Sept. 30. The legislation would reauthorize and modify the Small Business Administration's State Trade Expansion Program, which assists small businesses seeking to expand exports. The bill was referred to the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee.
  • S. 5476, legislation to impose sanctions on foreign persons who facilitated Israeli settlement construction in the E1 area of the West Bank. Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) introduced the bill Sept. 23, and Shaheen joined as a cosponsor Sept. 28. The measure was referred to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

Money

Pappas raised $23,703,648 in total receipts compared with Sununu's $5,681,528, a fundraising advantage of approximately $18.02 million, according to Federal Election Commission-derived campaign finance data through Oct. 14.

Pappas reported $22,126,867 in campaign disbursements, compared with Sununu's $3,936,991. Despite his substantial fundraising advantage, Pappas held $1,984,366 in cash on hand compared with Sununu's $1,711,396, a considerably narrower difference.

Outside spending was also a major feature of the contest. An FEC-derived analysis of independent expenditures disseminated after the Sept. 8 primaries identified approximately $61.33 million in general-election outside spending through Nov. 2, with filings processed through Nov. 4.

The spending broke down as follows:

  • Supporting Sununu: $7,711,675.
  • Opposing Sununu: $20,574,892.
  • Supporting Pappas: $2,331,739.
  • Opposing Pappas: $30,713,038.

Outside expenditures benefiting Sununu, through spending to support him or oppose Pappas, totaled approximately $38.42 million. Spending benefiting Pappas, through expenditures supporting him or opposing Sununu, totaled approximately $22.91 million.

Among the largest outside spenders were WinSenate, which reported approximately $17.19 million benefiting Pappas; No Going Back PAC Inc., with approximately $14.22 million benefiting Sununu; Senate Leadership Fund, with approximately $12.72 million benefiting Sununu; and Americans for Prosperity Action, with approximately $7.59 million benefiting Sununu. The outside-spending figures exclude approximately $7.76 million in primary-period independent expenditures.

Campaign Context

A pro-Pappas advertisement from WinSenate accused Sununu of "cashing in" on Washington connections and earning money from industries including pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, and insurance, according to a WinSenate ad announcement dated Oct. 15. The allegations reflected the group's campaign messaging.

Republican attacks portrayed Pappas as a "puppet" catering to Washington lobbyists and party bosses. A National Republican Senatorial Committee advertisement called him a "lightweight," according to WBUR on Nov. 3. At an Oct. 28 debate, Sununu characterized Pappas as an ineffective, out-of-touch career politician who had failed to deliver results during his time in Congress, according to WBUR.

At the same debate, Pappas argued that Sununu's endorsement by Trump tied him to an administration hurting New Hampshire's economy, according to WBUR. That characterization represented Pappas' campaign argument rather than an independently established conclusion about Sununu's motivations.

The candidates also clashed over energy costs and the Iran conflict. Pappas criticized Trump and Republicans over the war's economic consequences, while Sununu argued that increasing domestic energy production would help reduce prices.

Pre-Election Indicators

The Cook Political Report rated the race Toss Up as of Oct. 6, then moved it to Lean Democratic. The Cook Political Report rated it Lean Democratic as of Nov. 3. The race record's consensus rating was Likely Democratic as of Nov. 3.

The Kalshi prediction market showed Pappas at 97% and Sununu at 3%. The available figure was not independently established as a pre-election snapshot, so it should not be interpreted as a verified forecast recorded before voting concluded.

The Legis1 polling average as of Nov. 1, based on 87 polls, showed Pappas leading Sununu 51.3% to 43.0%, an 8.3-point margin. RealClearPolitics reported a final polling average covering Oct. 2 through Nov. 1 of Pappas 50.8% and Sununu 42.8%, an 8-point lead.

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