And The Winner Is

Democrat Ben Ray Luján has been elected to retain the New Mexico U.S. Senate seat, receiving 455,165 votes to Republican challenger Larry E. Marker who recorded 265,557 as of Nov. 4. ​

Pre-Election Indicators

The final polling average, aggregated by Legis1 as of November 2, showed Luján at 56.1 percent and Larry Marker at 37.7 percent, a margin of 18.4 points. Prediction markets on Kalshi placed Luján's probability of winning at 97.92 percent as of November 3, based on $164,910 in trading volume.

The Democratic primary, certified on June 2, drew 216,649 total votes across two candidates; Luján advanced as the nominee. The Republican primary, also certified June 2, drew 2,351 total votes, all cast for Marker, who ran unopposed; the Democratic primary drew approximately 92 times as many votes.

Money and Outside Spending

Luján raised $9,111,370.87 against Republican Larry Marker's $99,229.65, a fundraising gap of approximately 91.8 times, in a race rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.

Luján disbursed $6,347,417.97 from his campaign and closed the race with $2,843,276.35 in cash on hand, as of the money data cutoff of November 2, 2026. Marker disbursed $90,122.32 and finished with $88.07 in cash on hand.

Confirmed outside independent expenditures in support of Luján totaled $1,382.88 as of November 4, 2026, with an additional $274,429.28 in pending notices, bringing the total with pending to $275,812.16.

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The top outside spenders on record for the race:

  • AB PAC filed pending independent expenditure notices totaling $217,385.51 in support of Luján, the largest pending amount among the top spenders listed for this race; one notice in the record, for $191,913.26, described billboard advertising.
  • Workers En Accion PAC has $57,043.77 in pending support for Luján, and the two notices it filed on October 19 cover canvassing in Albuquerque.
  • ProgressNow New Mexico reported $1,062.23 in confirmed independent expenditures for Google advertising in support of Luján.
  • GiveGreen United Action reported $310.65 in confirmed independent expenditures in support of Luján, covering email messaging and online outreach beginning in March 2025.
  • Sierra Club Independent Action reported $10.00 in confirmed independent expenditures for a website endorsement in support of Luján.

Incumbent's Record

Luján first took office in 2009, giving him approximately 17 years of congressional service as of 2026; his Senate service began in 2021.

Congress.gov records at least five bills Luján sponsored in the 119th Congress, including the CARE Act of 2026.

  • S.5662, the CARE Act of 2026
  • S.5635, the Arts Education for All Act
  • S.5321, the HCBS Access Act
  • S.5282, the Chama Basin Watershed Protection Act
  • S.5278, the GHOST Act

Luján's committee assignments for the 119th Congress include the Finance Committee, the Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, the Indian Affairs Committee, and the Budget Committee. He serves as ranking member of the Agriculture Subcommittee on Food and Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics, and Research and of the Commerce Subcommittee on Telecommunications and Media.

What's Next

New Mexico's canvass and certification process will determine the official margin, as outlined on the New Mexico Secretary of State's home page.

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