Why it Matters

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and John E. Sununu (R-NH) are competing for New Hampshire's open Senate seat after incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) declined to seek re-election. Sununu defeated Scott Brown in the Republican primary on September 8, 2026, while Pappas won the Democratic primary on September 8, 2026. The race centers on economic policy and partisanship, with Sununu attacking Pappas for voting with Democratic leadership and favoring higher taxes.

Show Us The Money

Pappas has raised $15.38 million in total receipts compared to Sununu's $4.12 million, giving the Democratic candidate a substantial financial edge heading into the general election on November 3, 2026. Outside spending has heavily favored Sununu, with $2.07 million in outside money supporting him compared to $519,353 for Pappas as of September 9, 2026. Americans for Prosperity Action spent $2,442,084.91 in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race as of September 9, 2026. AFP Action began its media blitz in February 2026 with a $250,000 buy supporting Sununu, followed by successive six-figure placements in April, May, and June. Strong as Granite PAC spent $130,636 on direct mail printing and postage opposing John E. Sununu on March 18, 2026.

The Closing Argument

A University of New Hampshire poll released August 26 showed Sununu leading Pappas 45 percent to 43 percent, marking the first time Sununu had led in 2026 general election polling. Prediction markets as of September 9 gave Democrats an 82.18 percent probability of winning the seat.

Shaheen served on the Appropriations Committee, Armed Services Committee, and Foreign Relations Committee during the 119th Congress, positioning her committees to influence defense spending, international affairs, and federal funding priorities. Sununu has campaigned as a pragmatic, independent-minded Republican emphasizing his engineering background and willingness to work across the aisle, positioning himself as distinct from Trump despite the former president's endorsement.

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