And The Winner Is
Republican Kevin Hern has won the Oklahoma U.S. Senate seat in the Nov. 3 general election, leading Democrat N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas by 195,838 votes in unofficial, uncertified returns with 99.04 percent of precincts reporting, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.
Those figures are unofficial and do not include provisional ballots. State and federal results are not scheduled to be certified until Nov. 10.
The Race
Hern drew approximately 57.3 percent of the total votes counted, with 630,401 votes to Thomas's 434,563, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.
The seat was open. Incumbent Alan Armstrong, who took office March 24, did not run. Armstrong had served approximately 224 days as senator as of election day. The previous holder was Jim Inhofe (R).
Cook and Inside Elections rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 23, while Sabato's rating with the same label is dated Oct. 28. Prediction market Kalshi placed Hern's probability of winning at 97.33 percent as of Nov. 3.
Money and Outside Spending
The financial gap between the two general-election candidates was stark.
As of October 19, Hern raised $10,862,233 for the race, more than 93 times the $115,954 raised by Thomas. Hern reported $8,050,247 in total disbursements and $2,811,987 cash on hand. Thomas reported $92,789 in disbursements and $24,102 cash on hand.
Outside groups reported $2,449,305 in independent expenditures supporting Hern, with no outside spending recorded against him or in support of any other candidate in the race, according to app.legis1.com as of Nov. 4.
The seven top outside spenders all supported Hern:
- DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC: $808,341
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS: $735,613
- AMERICAN MISSION: $473,518
- FELLOWSHIP PAC: $300,000
- SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND: $107,049
- HIGH PLAINS PAC: $165,000 pending
- SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION: $24,784
Pre-Election Indicators
Hern won the Republican primary on June 16 with 267,222 votes, a margin of 215,347 votes (56.22 percentage points) over second-place finisher Gary Ty England. Markwayne Mullin, who had raised $4,845,484 for the race, withdrew before the primary to become the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security.
Thomas won the Democratic primary runoff on Aug. 25, defeating Jim Priest by 28,980 votes (22.38 percentage points).
Incumbent's Record
Armstrong served on the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (including the Subcommittee on Employment and Workplace Safety, as well as the Subcommittee on Primary Health and Retirement Security) and the Committee on Indian Affairs.
In the 119th Congress, Armstrong sponsored S.5600, the Dennis John Benigno Traumatic Brain Injury Program Reauthorization Act of 2026.
What's Next
The Oklahoma State Election Board has scheduled certification of state and federal results for Nov. 10.
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