Why it Matters
Social Security's retirement trust fund is projected to run out of reserves in 2032, putting the future of full retirement benefits at the center of a Nov. 18 Senate hearing.
The latest Social Security trustees' report projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. Without congressional action, continuing payroll tax revenue and other income would cover just 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits. The combined retirement and disability trust funds, meanwhile, are projected to exhaust their reserves in 2034, when 83% of scheduled benefits would remain payable.
The Senate Budget Committee will examine the program's financial outlook at a Nov. 18 hearing titled "Social Security: The Reality." The committee is chaired by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) serving as ranking member. The hearing will feature testimony from economist Veronique de Rugy of George Mason University's Mercatus Center, Jason Fichtner of the LIMRA Retirement Income Institute and labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards of the National Academy of Social Insurance.
Broader Context
The hearing comes as lawmakers face renewed pressure to address Social Security's long-term finances following the midterm elections.
MarketWatch reported Nov. 7 on the debate over requiring higher-income Americans to pay Social Security payroll taxes on more of their earnings. The tax currently applies only to the first $184,500 in annual earnings, and that threshold is scheduled to rise to $192,300 in 2027. Raising or eliminating the cap is one proposal for bringing additional revenue into the program.
USA Today examined Nov. 8 whether newly elected senators could help address the program's looming funding shortfall.
The debate also comes as Social Security recipients prepare for an increase in their monthly benefits. On Oct. 14, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, affecting approximately 76 million Americans who receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income. The average retirement benefit will increase by about $75 per month beginning in January.
That same day, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who does not serve on the Budget Committee, called for legislation to strengthen Social Security benefits.
Advocacy groups, disability representatives and organizations involved in administering Social Security have also been lobbying Congress over the program's future. Lobbying disclosures covering the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of this year report the following spending:
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare: $1.02 million. Its filings identify budget resolutions and fiscal commissions that could lead to benefit cuts.
- National Organization of Social Security Claimants' Representatives: $550,000.
- Allsup LLC: $140,000.
- National Council of Social Security Management Associations: $120,000.
- Association of Administrative Law Judges: $85,500.
- Social Security Works: $80,000. Its filings include support for S. 770, the Social Security Expansion Act.
The disclosures reflect lobbying on Social Security-related issues, although the reported totals may also include spending on other policy priorities.
The Bottom Line
The Nov. 18 hearing will put Social Security's looming funding shortfall before lawmakers as they weigh competing approaches to keeping the program solvent.
The central question is whether Congress will raise additional revenue, reduce scheduled benefits, or pursue a combination of changes. Without legislation, the retirement trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves in 2032, leaving enough continuing income to cover only 78% of promised retirement and survivor benefits.
Although the hearing will not produce legislation on its own, it will give lawmakers an opportunity to question economists and retirement policy experts about the program's finances and potential solutions.
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