Why It Matters
The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is projected to be depleted in 2032, at which point ongoing revenues would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, according to a new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report. That depletion would create a direct conflict between the Social Security Act's entitlement guarantee and the Antideficiency Act's prohibition on spending beyond available funds.
The OASI trust fund has run annual deficits since 2021, with the shortfall growing from -$59.1 billion that year to a projected -$243.3 billion in 2026.
The Big Picture
The 2026 projected combined OASDI actuarial deficit stands at 4.42% of taxable payroll, more than twice the 1.82% deficit that Congress addressed in the Social Security Amendments of 1983 (P.L. 98-21), which the report describes as the last major Social Security reform.
OASI asset reserves are projected to fall from $2.338 trillion in 2025 to $767.2 billion in 2030, while the annual deficit grows from -$243.3 billion in 2026 to -$375.5 billion in 2030.
The report attributes the widening gap mainly to demographic factors, citing the trustees' finding that "the growing difference between costs and revenues is largely attributable to demographic factors."
H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted as P.L. 119-21 on July 4, 2025, created an additional standard deduction for tax filers over 65, and the trustees project that provision will reduce revenue to the trust funds compared with prior law.
The two trust funds are legally distinct and cannot borrow from each other under current law, though Congress has authorized interfund transfers in the past, including a temporary reallocation under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (P.L. 114-74) that shifted payroll tax shares between OASI and DI for 2016 through 2018.
The Bottom Line
The Social Security Act does not specify what the Social Security Administration (SSA) would do if a trust fund is depleted, leaving two possible approaches: paying full benefits on a delayed schedule, or making timely but reduced payments.
The trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected shortfalls in a timely way, stating that earlier action would spread changes over more workers and beneficiaries and give them more time to plan.
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