Why It Matters

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) advanced from Alaska’s Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary and are headed toward a closely watched general election that could help determine control of the Senate. With 93.8% of precincts reporting in unofficial results Wednesday morning, Peltola led the primary with 48.04% of the vote to Sullivan’s 42.84%.

The race has emerged as a genuine Senate battleground. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rate Alaska a Toss-up, reflecting Peltola’s strength as a challenger in a state that has historically favored Republicans in federal elections.

Money is also reshaping the contest. Peltola’s principal Senate campaign committee reported $18.55 million in receipts through July 29, including $16.26 million in individual contributions, and had $4.64 million in cash on hand. Sullivan’s principal campaign committee reported $9.14 million in receipts during the election cycle and held $7.30 million in cash.

Peltola has therefore raised substantially more overall, while Sullivan enters the general election with a larger cash reserve. Peltola received about 96% of her contributions from individuals, while Sullivan received a larger share of his money from PACs and other political committees.

The Candidates

Sullivan is seeking a third term after first winning the seat in 2014. His campaign emphasizes his military record, Alaska energy and resource development and support for President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. Sullivan retired as a colonel from the Marine Corps Reserve after 30 years of service.

Sullivan chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee’s Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee and the Commerce Committee’s Coast Guard, Maritime and Fisheries Subcommittee. He also serves on the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee.

His policy record reflects an emphasis on energy, defense and deregulation. Sullivan criticized the Biden administration’s Waters of the United States Rule, arguing that federal requirements could impose significant costs and delays on landowners. He introduced the Freedom to Haul Act to reverse Biden-era electric-truck regulations and threatened to suspend the law requiring cruise ships to stop in Canadian ports amid escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions.

National security has also been central to Sullivan’s Senate career. He has warned about growing military threats from China and Russia, advocated expanding the Port of Nome to accommodate larger U.S. military vessels and traveled to Taiwan as part of a congressional delegation. Sullivan has also supported continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

Sullivan has not always aligned with Trump. During Trump’s first term, he raised concerns about tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and criticized the administration’s efforts to invalidate portions of the Affordable Care Act. His voting record in the current Congress, however, has generally aligned with the Republican majority and Trump administration priorities.

Sullivan has also faced criticism from constituents over his relationship with the administration. Protesters demonstrated during his address to the Alaska Legislature with signs saying, “You work for us not Trump.” Sullivan did not attend a town hall in Fairbanks, prompting constituents to hold an “empty chair” town hall.

Peltola became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress when she won Alaska’s at-large House seat in 2022. She has positioned herself as a pragmatic, Alaska-focused candidate and has sought to distinguish her campaign from the national Democratic Party.

That strategy was tested shortly before the primary when former Vice President Kamala Harris sent an unsolicited fundraising appeal on Peltola's behalf. Peltola’s campaign distanced itself from the appeal and said it was not seeking endorsements from national political figures.

Fundraising is one of Peltola’s clearest advantages. Her Senate committee raised $18.55 million through July 29, more than twice the $9.14 million reported by Sullivan’s principal campaign committee. Sullivan nevertheless held approximately $2.66 million more cash because Peltola had already spent nearly $13.91 million, compared with Sullivan’s $3.93 million.

Sullivan’s fundraising includes substantial support from political committees alongside individual donors. The Air Line Pilots Association PAC, for example, contributed $12,500 to his campaign. Peltola, by contrast, has relied overwhelmingly on individual contributions.

The Bottom Line

Alaska’s Senate race is no longer clearly Republican-favored. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rate the contest a Toss-up, reflecting Peltola’s fundraising strength, statewide name recognition and demonstrated ability to win Alaska voters.

The Aug. 18 primary reinforced the competitiveness of the race. With 378 of 403 precincts reporting, Peltola had 63,364 votes, or 48.04%, compared with Sullivan’s 56,510 votes, or 42.84%. The results remained unofficial, and Alaska’s top four primary finishers advance to the general election.

Sullivan still enters the general election with important advantages. He is a two-term incumbent with $7.3 million in cash on hand, three decades of military experience and an established record on energy, defense and Alaska-specific issues. Republicans have also historically held an advantage in Alaska’s federal elections.

Peltola, however, has already demonstrated an ability to win statewide and has built a formidable fundraising operation. She has raised more than twice as much through her principal Senate committee as Sullivan has through his, while attempting to appeal to voters as an Alaska-focused candidate rather than a national Democratic figure.

The result is a race that pits Sullivan’s incumbency, larger cash reserve and Republican structural advantages against Peltola’s fundraising strength, crossover appeal and statewide political profile. With both major election forecasters rating Alaska a Toss-up, the contest is positioned to be one of the more consequential Senate races of the cycle.

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