Democratic-aligned super PACs outpaced Republican groups in the October 21–22, 2026 window, adding $6.7 million across 124 filings against the GOP's $4.08 million across 113 filings. WinSenate placed $2,160,740, or 84% of its $2,583,103 net increase in ad-buy dollars across the window, into Ohio's U.S. Senate race across 23 filings. The race is rated a Toss-up.
The Democratic advance: House Majority PAC (HMP) (D) reported $4.12 million across 72 filings, concentrated in Arizona ($873,260, 9 filings), Wisconsin ($857,775, 18 filings), and Florida ($744,475, 9 filings). WinSenate (D) followed at $2.58 million across 52 filings.
The GOP advance: Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) (R) topped Republican groups at $2.63 million across 44 filings, with Texas ($718,860, 3 filings), South Carolina ($392,390, 1 filing), and Wisconsin ($344,935, 8 filings) its top states. Senate Leadership Fund (R) added $1.18 million across 39 filings, led by Iowa ($510,765, 10 filings) and South Carolina ($410,675, 10 filings). No Going Back PAC (R) added $267,108 across 30 filings.
Where the money moved: Ohio led with $2.35 million across 33 filings, with the Ohio U.S. Senate Seat (Class III) (Toss-up) drawing $2.17 million of that across 28 filings. Texas followed at $1.57 million across 15 filings, including $714,500 across 3 filings for Texas's 34th U.S. House District (Lean Democratic). Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, and more than a dozen smaller states also posted net gains.
Where it left: North Carolina saw the steepest pullback at −$813,395 across 20 filings; the North Carolina U.S. Senate Seat (Class II) (Lean Democratic, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political as of Oct. 12) accounted for −$525,505 across 14 filings. Georgia fell −$238,896 across 1 filing, entirely from Senate Leadership Fund (SLF PAC)'s withdrawal from the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat (Class II) (Likely Democratic). Montana and New Jersey also posted small net decreases.
Sitting it out: Fresh Start SC PAC (D), a WinSenate affiliate; House Majority Forward (D), an HMP affiliate; One Nation (R), an SLF affiliate; American Action Network (R), a CLF affiliate; and MAGA Inc. (R) filed no ad buys in the window.
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