The Result
James Talarico has been declared the winner of the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to the Associated Press, which reported the victory ended Republicans' three-decade hold on statewide offices in Texas. The general election certification status remains "counting," meaning results are not yet certified.
With 47 percent of polling locations reporting as of Nov. 3 at 11:40 p.m., the Texas Secretary of State showed Talarico at 4,546,036 votes and Ken Paxton at 3,567,899; those figures are incomplete and do not constitute a final count or certified margin.
The decades of total Republican Party rule in Texas are over. Its hegemony had resulted in a succession of increasingly conservative leaders, from George W. Bush to Rick Perry to Greg Abbott, and increasingly conservative lawmaking, including abortion bans, Christian teaching material in public schools and expanded gun rights.
Democrats in Texas rose as national blowback against the Trump administration mounted among voters troubled by the war in Iran, an intense immigration crackdown and cost-of-living concerns. But Mr. Paxton owed much of his success to his closeness to Mr. Trump and Mr. Abbott tied himself closely to Mr. Trump’s policies.
The Race
The seat became open when incumbent John Cornyn lost the Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton on May 26, 2026, by 27.64 percentage points, 63.82 percent to 36.18 percent, out of 1,391,634 votes cast.
Cornyn had served approximately 23 years in the Senate, having first taken office on Dec. 2, 2002, according to the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress and Congress.gov. President Trump had weighed in to endorse Ken Paxton. On the Democratic side, Talarico won his primary over Jasmine Crockett by 6.23 percentage points, 52.45 percent to 46.22 percent, out of 2,319,187 votes cast.
Money
Talarico raised $146.3 million in total receipts against Paxton's $22.3 million, a gap of approximately $124 million. Talarico ended the race with $9.9 million cash on hand against Paxton's $4.8 million.
Independent expenditures opposing Paxton reached $27.2 million, roughly 19 times the $1.4 million spent supporting him, among reported outside spending in this race.
Breaking down outside spending by side:
- For Talarico (Democratic): $5.0 million in support, $1.3 million in opposition
- For Paxton (Republican): $1.4 million in support, $27.2 million in opposition
Including pending notices, total outside spending across the race reached $489.1 million, as of Nov. 4, with notices through that date and independent expenditure coverage through Oct. 14.
Campaign Attacks
The race drew pointed attacks from both sides. According to Taylor Goldenstein of The Texas Tribune on June 18, 2026, Talarico accused Paxton's office of offering an improper, overly lenient plea deal in a child-sex-abuse case and demanded records explaining how it was reached; Paxton's spokesperson disputed Talarico's framing, and the defense attorney said Paxton had no involvement in the negotiations, the Tribune reported.
In a campaign video reported by Kayla Guo of The Texas Tribune on May 27, 2026, Talarico called Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America" and accused him of serving megadonors through "bribes, bailouts and billionaire tax breaks," according to the Tribune's coverage. A Paxton campaign ad, also reported by Guo on May 27, used clips of Talarico's past comments on gender and veganism to portray him as outside Texas values and label him "too low-T for Texas," according to the Tribune.
An ad paid for by Texas PAC, an outside group, claimed Talarico supported charging or jailing parents who did not support transitioning their children; Kelly Wiley and Jon Hill of KPRC Click2Houston reported on Oct. 28, 2026, that the ad's claim was not supported by the cited hearing remarks, and that the ad was not from Paxton's campaign.
Pre-Election Indicators
Before election day, forecasters leaned toward Talarico but did not agree on the margin of risk. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Leans Democratic from Toss-up on Nov. 2, 2026, according to its 2026 rating changes page. Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss Up as of Oct. 30, 2026, according to Kalshi's coverage of the race.
On Nov. 2, 2026, Kalshi's prediction market priced Talarico at 76 cents (76 percent) and Paxton at 24 cents (24 percent), according to Kalshi's Texas Senate race coverage.
The Legis1 polling consensus as of Nov. 2, 2026, based on 372 polls, showed Talarico leading Paxton 49.5 percent to 46.2 percent, a margin of 3.2 points. RealClearPolitics' polling average, covering Oct. 15 through Nov. 1 and displayed Nov. 2, 2026, showed Talarico at 49.1 percent and Paxton at 46.5 percent, a Talarico advantage of 2.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
Certification of the general election result has not yet occurred; no next stage is scheduled. Full results and a certified margin can be tracked at app.legis1.com.
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