Why It Matters

The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has proposed adding birth and marriage rate bonuses to the formula that sets federal funding shares for transit construction projects, raising questions about whether demographic factors could offset weaker project performance scores, according to a new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report. The proposal remains open for public comment, with a Nov. 16 deadline. ​

FTA published the proposed revised Capital Investment Grants (CIG) policy guidance on Oct. 1 in the Federal Register, stating the revisions are intended to streamline the CIG process and improve accountability. CIG funds fixed-guideway transit construction, including new light rail lines and additions to existing systems.

The Big Picture

The proposal traces to DOT Order 2100.7, issued March 10, 2025, which directs the Department of Transportation to give preference, where practicable and consistent with law, to communities with above-national-average marriage and birth rates in administering CIG.

Projects rated medium or higher overall would start at a 40% CIG share, with ratings on six justification criteria, including cost effectiveness, mobility improvements and congestion relief, adjusting that share up or down. Federal law caps the share at 60% for New Starts projects and 80% for Small Starts and Core Capacity projects under 49 U.S.C. §5309(l).

The proposal would add five percentage points each for corridor birth and marriage rates more than 1% above the national average, measured using Census Bureau tract data within a one-mile buffer around the project corridor. That 10-point combined ceiling equals, in magnitude, the penalty a project receives for a medium-low cost-effectiveness rating under the proposed table.

The CRS report notes that critics point to research indicating that places with relatively high birth and marriage rates tend to be farther from urban centers, have higher car ownership and lower transit use. The report also notes that residents of such places are more likely to be White and less likely to be Black or Hispanic.

The report cautions that the adjustments may incentivize more commuter rail projects, citing a Government Accountability Office study finding commuter rail carries "considerable infrastructure and operational costs making commuter rail more expensive to provide compared to some other transit modes."

The Bottom Line

The public comment period on the proposed policy runs until Nov. 16, and the policy has not been finalized. Congress may weigh whether the demographic adjustments serve the CIG program's purposes, particularly given the caution that the bonuses may offset weaker scores on project merit criteria.

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