Are F-35s Headed for a Crash Landing?

Why it Matters

The Senate Armed Services Committee's Subcommittee on Airland is set to scrutinize a record $338.8 billion Air Force and Space Force budget request when it convenes its Air Force modernization hearing on May 13. This is a review that will shape how the United States funds its next generation of combat aircraft, stealth bombers, and the industrial base behind them. The decisions made during this FY2027 defense authorization cycle will determine whether flagship programs like the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance fighter and the B-21 Raider stealth bomber stay on track, and whether a potential procurement cliff for the F-35 materializes if a separate budget reconciliation bill fails.

The Department of the Air Force released its FY2027 budget proposal on April 21, framing it as a plan designed to "sharpen readiness, continue modernizing the fleet and underwrite deterrence," in the words of Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink. That submission is the direct trigger for the hearing.

The major defense contractors lobbying on programs before the subcommittee have collectively spent tens of millions of dollars on defense authorization and appropriations matters over the past year. Lockheed Martin reported more than $16 million in broad defense lobbying across four quarters, while Boeing reported more than $11 million and Northrop Grumman nearly $7 million.

The F-35 Problem

The most immediate tension heading into the defense spending hearing is the fate of F-35 procurement. The Pentagon's FY2027 budget requests 85 F-35 Lightning II fighters across the joint force, including 38 F-35As for the Air Force — a sharp increase from 47 aircraft across all services in FY2026. But most of that buy is contingent on passage of a budget reconciliation bill. If reconciliation fails, the F-35 purchase could fall to just 32 aircraft, well below the FY2026 baseline.

That structural uncertainty is likely to draw scrutiny from both sides of the aisle. Lockheed Martin, the F-35's prime contractor, has spent roughly $120,000 lobbying on the program over the past year through Public Strategies Washington, with filings in each quarter covering the F-35 program, NDAA provisions, and FY2026 and FY2027 appropriations. Component supplier Parker Meggitt spent an additional $450,000 on F-35-related lobbying across the same period.

Next-Generation Programs and the B-21

The FY2027 budget directs $3.5 billion to the F-47 NGAD, the next-generation air dominance fighter awarded to Boeing, alongside significant increases for the B-21 Raider stealth bomber. The Survivable Airborne Operations Center, a nuclear command-and-control aircraft, would receive $2.2 billion in research and development funding.

Northrop Grumman, the B-21's prime contractor, spent nearly $3.9 million lobbying on defense authorization and appropriations matters in the past year, with its most recent First Quarter 2026 filing explicitly covering the FY2027 NDAA, FY2027 defense appropriations, aviation programs, and air and missile defense. Local communities hosting B-21 operations have added their own pressure: the South Dakota Ellsworth Development Authority, which represents the community around Ellsworth Air Force Base where B-21s are set to be bedded down, spent $128,000 lobbying on base enhancement, B-21 infrastructure requirements, and the FY2027 NDAA and defense appropriations bill.

Near-Term Readiness: The F-15EX Expansion

Running parallel to the next-generation investments is a near-term readiness push. The FY2027 budget requests $3 billion for 24 F-15EX fighters, with the Air Force now reportedly planning a total fleet of 267 F-15EX aircraft, more than double the previous objective of 129. BAE Systems, which provides avionics and systems integration for both the F-35 and F-15EX, reported $990,000 in lobbying in Second Quarter 2025 alone, covering the F-35, F-15EX, electronic warfare, and DoD appropriations.

The budget also funds 23 new T-7A Red Hawk trainer jets to accelerate pilot training for modern fighter fleets, and requests over $24 billion for weapons sustainment — a figure that reflects the ongoing cost of keeping legacy fleets operational while simultaneously funding next-generation programs.

The DOGE Question

Democratic members of the subcommittee are expected to press on a separate front. Reporting has identified roughly $11 billion in DOGE-linked "efficiencies" embedded in Pentagon budget documents, including the termination or adjustment of 390 contracts and grants. Air and Space Forces Magazine has separately catalogued DOGE-linked cuts specific to the Air Force and Space Force budgets. Senators including Tammy Duckworth, Jack Reed, and Ranking Member Mark Kelly are likely to raise questions about whether those cuts are undercutting readiness even as the overall request hits a record high.

Who's in the Room

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) chairs the Subcommittee on Airland, with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) serving as ranking member. The full subcommittee includes Sens. Deb Fischer, Dan Sullivan, Roger Wicker, Markwayne Mullin, Ted Budd, Tom Cotton, Eric Schmitt, Angus King Jr., Gary Peters, Tammy Duckworth, Jack Reed, Elissa Slotkin, and Richard Blumenthal. The hearing convenes at 232A Russell Senate Office Building.

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