The Race

Chuck Gray emerged from a 10-candidate Republican primary field in Wyoming's at-large U.S. House race on Aug. 18, becoming the party's nominee, with unofficial results showing he captured 25 percent of the vote. Results for the Democratic and Libertarian primaries, each featuring a single candidate, were still being counted as of Aug. 19.

The Democratic and Libertarian primaries each had a single candidate and were still in the counting phase as of Aug. 19, with no winner declared in either contest.

The general election is set for Nov. 3.

Outside Money

The Republican primary attracted $3.03 million in outside spending, all of it in support of candidates, with no opposition spending recorded through the data's coverage period ending July 15. Three Republican candidates drew outside investment, led by Frank Chapman.

Fighting for Wyoming, a super PAC, was the single largest outside spender in the primary, directing $2.42 million in support of Chapman. The committee's biggest outlays were a pair of television advertising buys: $1 million on May 8 and another $1 million on June 26, both paid to Torchlight Creative. The committee also placed three rounds of print advertising through November Inc on June 11, totaling roughly $292,000 across those transactions, along with smaller digital advertising buys through Facebook and National Victory Strategies.

Two committees directed outside money toward Gray. Protecting Wyoming Values, a super PAC, reported $519,016 in support expenditures. The committee's activity began in mid-April with a $75,000 media placement and production buy through Right Target Media on April 30, a $62,570 media buy through the same vendor on April 15, and a series of direct mail campaigns through Caliber Contact, each in the range of $46,486, placed in April, May, and June. The committee also ran radio advertising through Mt. Rushmore Broadcasting, digital and web advertising through RMC, and phone call outreach.

Make Liberty Win, a non-super PAC hybrid committee, reported $36,970 in support of Gray, spent on field distribution of literature on June 5 through PAC Management Services, LLC.

Special Operations for America, a super PAC, placed a single $50,000 digital advertising buy through Trumpet LLC on April 30 in support of David Giralt.

General Election Spending

Beyond the primary, pending general election commitments totaling $3.53 million had been signaled as of Aug. 19, though those filings were not yet reflected in detailed transaction records through the coverage period ending July 15. The top spenders with pending general election activity include Wyoming Way Action PAC with $1.96 million pending, Hometown Freedom Action Network with $1.14 million pending, Fighting for Wyoming with $23,500 pending, and Outrider PAC with $406,134 pending.

Total outside spending with pending commitments stands at $6.55 million as of Aug. 19.

All candidates in the race combined to raise $8.89 million as of Aug. 19.

Race Ratings

Every major handicapper rates Wyoming's at-large House seat as Solid Republican. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all assigned the race a "Solid Republican" rating as of mid-August 2026, and the consensus rating as of Aug. 17 matches that assessment.

Wyoming has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. House in decades, and the ratings reflect the state's deep partisan lean.

Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, as of Aug. 19, the Wyoming at-large House race showed Republican odds at 98.45 percent and Democratic odds at 1.55 percent, based on $5,481 in market volume.

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