Why It Matters
With average highway diesel prices at $6.529 per gallon on Sept. 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report says export restrictions could lower diesel prices in the short term in some areas and describes possible effects on surface, maritime, and aviation transportation.
The Trump administration and some members of Congress are reportedly considering export restrictions, with the stated goals of increasing domestic supply and lowering consumer prices through cheaper shipping costs. The report, updated Oct. 1 and authored by Ben Goldman, analyst in transportation policy, does not endorse or reject a ban but maps the tradeoffs Congress would need to weigh.
The CRS report describes two bills: H.R. 10423, which would immediately ban diesel exports until the end of the calendar year, and H.R. 10422, which would automatically impose a ban if diesel averages more than $5.00 per gallon over a two-week period and keep it in place until the price is below $4.50 per gallon for 30 consecutive days.
The Big Picture
In 2024, trucks and trains transported about 13 million of the 17.7 million total tons of domestic freight, almost all using diesel-fueled engines. Shippers of perishable goods, which cannot be easily stored, may be especially sensitive to elevated fuel costs.
Industry analysts reportedly forecast that refineries could respond to an export ban by cutting diesel production until any surplus is depleted. Because diesel is produced alongside gasoline and aviation fuel in the same refining process, a drop in diesel output could reduce supplies of those fuels as well, potentially raising their prices depending on broader market conditions.
Internationally, Mexico reportedly imports roughly 60 percent of its diesel from the United States, and higher fuel costs abroad could eventually raise prices for goods imported by U.S. consumers.
The report also flags a Highway Trust Fund (HTF) complication, namely that if high fuel prices reduce consumption, federal fuel-tax receipts flowing into the HTF could decline. Surface transportation programs are currently scheduled to expire Dec. 11, making that revenue question directly relevant to the upcoming reauthorization debate.
On the maritime side, the report notes that a diesel export ban may amplify calls to waive the Jones Act, which requires waterborne shipments between U.S. ports to use U.S.-built, U.S.-crewed vessels. The Department of Homeland Security issued a Jones Act waiver on March 17, shortly after military operations began against Iran, and extended it twice through mid-November 2026. Of more than 200 voyages taken under that waiver, over 20 carried diesel fuel, according to U.S. Maritime Administration reports as of September.
The Bottom Line
The report identifies surface transportation reauthorization, Jones Act waiver policy, Highway Trust Fund revenue, and aviation fuel supply as issues a diesel export ban could touch, and it says the current surface transportation programs are scheduled to expire on December 11.
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