The Race

Harriet Hageman captured the Republican nomination for Wyoming's U.S. Senate Class II seat on Aug. 18, taking 64.9 percent of the primary vote in an unofficial three-way contest, according to race records. Democrat James Byrd ran against Billy Benavidez and won the nomination with 79.3 percent of total votes counted as of August 19. The general election is set for Nov. 3.

Outside Spending

Three outside groups reported independent expenditures in the primary, all directed at supporting Republican candidates. No opposition spending was filed against any candidate, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records through July 15.

The Senate Conservatives Fund, a PAC, was the largest spender. It reported $65,000 in support of Cynthia Marie Lummis, the incumbent, and $33,900 in support of Hageman, with expenditures covering direct mail production, digital marketing, and donation processing.

Senate Conservatives Action, a super PAC affiliated with the same conservative network, reported $23,000 in support of Lummis and $10,900 in support of Hageman, with spending focused on direct mail production.

Club for Growth PAC, a separate PAC, reported $10,700 in support of Hageman, directed toward mail production and postage.

Combined, the three committees reported $109,500 in primary outside spending, all on the support side.

Looking beyond the periodic-report total, the race's outside spending record shows $904,905 in pending notice filings on behalf of Hageman and $25,749 in pending notices on behalf of Samuel Mead, a third Republican candidate. Those figures represent recent 24/48-hour FEC notice filings not yet restated in a periodic report and are not included in the $109,500 periodic total above.

Two super PACs, Defend American Jobs and American Mission, account for the bulk of the pending activity, with $515,838 and $333,254 in pending notices, respectively. Neither committee had reported periodic-report totals as of the data's coverage date.

All candidates in the race combined had raised $5.47 million as of Aug. 19, according to FEC records.

Race Ratings

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections each rated the Wyoming Senate race "Solid Republican" as of their most recent updates, Aug. 5, Aug. 19, and Aug. 6, respectively. The consensus rating, as of Aug. 13, is also "Solid Republican."

Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, as of Aug. 19, 2026, the Republican candidate carried a 97.8 percent implied probability of winning the general election, with the Democratic candidate at 2.2 percent. The market had a reported volume of 14,563 contracts.

General Election Outlook

Heading into November, the Wyoming Senate race carries a consensus "Solid Republican" rating from all three major handicappers, and Kalshi's prediction market placed the Republican's implied win probability at 97.8 percent as of Aug. 19. No outside groups have yet filed general election independent expenditures, though pending FEC notices signal that at least some outside activity is anticipated on behalf of Hageman. The Democratic primary's results remain in the counting stage, and no winner has been declared.

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