The Race
Democrat Josh Turek won the Iowa U.S. Senate general election on November 3, 2026, flipping a seat held by Republican Joni Ernst, who did not run for re-election, with unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State's Election Night Reporting showing Turek leading Ashley Hinson 661,843 to 606,708 with 94 of 99 counties reporting as of November 4, 2026, at 12:29 a.m.
Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rated the race a Toss-up as of late October 2026. Turek's unofficial lead stood at 55,135 votes, an arithmetic difference in a partial count that the Iowa Secretary of State has not yet certified. The general election results carry a certification status of "counting."
The Legis1 polling consensus as of November 1, 2026, gave Turek a 0.4-point lead over Hinson, 47.5 percent to 47.0 percent, across 71 polls. Kalshi prediction markets, as of November 3, 2026, placed the Democratic probability of winning at 51.96 percent and the Republican probability at 48.04 percent, on volume of $11,067,641, according to the race record.
Money and Outside Spending
Turek raised $24,290,521 in total receipts, compared with $14,147,973 for Hinson, a difference of $10,142,548 between the two major-party candidates.
Outside spending directed at supporting or opposing Turek totaled $17,121,928, while spending directed at supporting or opposing Hinson totaled $17,471,280, a difference of $349,352 between the two candidates, according to the race record as of November 4, 2026.
Among the top outside spenders, VoteVets reported the largest confirmed total in the race record. VoteVets reported $16,231,619 in total outside spending, including $9,756,436 in support and $6,475,183 in opposition. Win It Back PAC reported $3,789,309 in outside spending, all of it in opposition. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action), doing business as CVA Action and Libre Action, reported $3,651,772 in total outside spending, including $3,449,905 in support.
The race record also lists $177,349,436 in pending independent expenditure notices not yet counted in confirmed totals, as of November 4, 2026.
The Incumbent's Record
Ernst served approximately 11 years in the Senate, having first taken office in 2015, according to Congress.gov member profile records. In the 119th Congress, Ernst held committee assignments including chairmanships of three subcommittees. She chaired the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry's Subcommittee on Rural Development, Energy, and Credit; the Senate Committee on Armed Services' Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities; and the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, according to U.S. Senate committee assignment records at senate.gov.
Among bills Ernst sponsored in the 119th Congress, according to Congress.gov, were S.1530, the SERVE Act; S.3902, the RECEIPTS Act; and S.3259, the RECAPTURE Act. She also cosponsored S.2293, the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act of 2025. Congress.gov does not report final legislative outcomes for those bills.
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