Why It Matters
The primary election for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District concluded on Monday, September 7, but the results are still being counted.
Two Democratic candidates have dominated the fundraising landscape: Maura Sullivan, a former Obama administration official, and Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and co-founder of the digital health company Good Measures.
New Hampshire Public Radio reported that Sullivan and her campaign have sometimes embellished her Obama-era résumé.
ChristianUrrutia, a former Airbnb director of anti-discrimination, privacy and human rights, has positioned himself as an outsider disrupting broken politics.
The Closing Argument
The district spans urban, suburban, and rural areas across 75 communities in six counties plus all of Carroll County in southeastern New Hampshire, including Greater Manchester, the Seacoast region, and the Lakes Region. The median household income is approximately $97,362, well above the national median. The median property value of $429,400 exceeds the national median of approximately $332,700. The poverty rate of approximately 6.96 percent is substantially lower than the national rate of 12.5 percent.
The Cook Political Report rated the district as Likely Democratic as of August 25, with Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections both calling it Lean Democratic as of late August and early September. The consensus rating stands at Likely Democratic as of August 31. Kalshi prediction market gave Democrats a 91 percent probability of winning the seat as of September 8, compared to Republicans' 9 percent.The district leans Democratic by two points on the Cook Partisan Voter Index.
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