NH Senate: Pappas, Sununu Advance to November General

Race Overview

New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat is set for a competitive general election on Nov. 3, with Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and John E. Sununu (R-NH) emerging from their respective primaries on Sept. 8 to face each other in the fall. The seat became open when incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), a Democrat, did not seek re-election. The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Democratic as of Aug. 20, reflecting the Democratic advantage in this open-seat contest.

Primary Results

Pappas captured the Democratic nomination with 65 percent of the vote in a three-candidate field. Sununu won the Republican primary with 69 percent across a four-candidate contest. Both results remain unofficial pending certification. An independent primary with one candidate was held on the same date; the results remain pending certification.

PAC and SuperPAC Spending in the Primary

Outside spending in the primary was dominated by a single committee. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) reported $1.94 million in support of Sununu, making it by far the largest spender in the race. AFP Action also filed expenditures opposing Pappas, though those transactions share image numbers with its Sununu support spending and represent the same underlying disbursements.

Strong As Granite PAC, a super PAC, spent $130,636 opposing Sununu in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, SLF PAC spent $11,166 opposing Pappas. Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption spent $2,832.50 supporting primary challenger Karishma Manzur and $2,832.50 opposing Pappas. GIVEGREEN United Action and DMFI PAC each made small support expenditures for Pappas totaling under $1,200 combined.

Reported outside spending in the race as of Sept. 9 stood at $2.59 million, according to FEC filings and Legis1 independent expenditure data. An additional $3.6 million in pending notices had not yet been restated in periodic filings as of that date.

General Election Pledges

No general election independent expenditure filings appear in the 44 primary-period records. All spending coded in the data is directed at the primary election. However, the race's spending summary shows $3.6 million in pending notice filings as of Sept. 9, which have not yet been restated in periodic reports. WinSenate, a super PAC, carries $667,896 in pending expenditures in the race.

Party Leadership Reaction

Both party campaign committees weighed in quickly after the primary. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) said in a post-primary statement, "Granite Staters have a clear choice, and in November, they will send Chris Pappas to the Senate," according to The Hill. The DSCC had previously described Pappas as a "formidable candidate" and "a strong favorite to win in a general election" in an earlier institutional assessment.

A Politico report published on primary day noted that some Democrats in New Hampshire and beyond were calling for more resources for Pappas as he heads into the general. On the Republican side, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) had endorsed Sununu as far back as October 2025, stating in an NRSC press release, "John Sununu's deep roots and passion for the Granite State make him built to win." Following the primary, NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said in a Sept. 9 statement, "Chris Pappas survived his primary by running to the far left. In the Senate, he would be Sen. Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) rubber stamp, Washington first, Granite Staters last."

Race Ratings

Forecasters rate this race as competitive but Democratic-leaning heading into November. The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Democratic as of Aug. 20, and Sabato's Crystal Ball held the same rating as of Aug. 26. Inside Elections moved the race from Tilt Democrat to Toss-up on Sept. 3, citing consecutive public polls showing Sununu leading or tied with Pappas, including a University of New Hampshire survey showing Sununu ahead 45 percent to 43 percent. The 270toWin consensus rating, as of Aug. 31, sits at Lean Democratic.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets diverge from the qualitative forecasters. Kalshi gave Democrats an 82.18 percent win probability as of Wednesday, Sept. 9 at 2:00 PM ET, based on $348,846 in market volume, per the Kalshi market page. That reading is notably more bullish on Democrats than the ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections.

General Election Outlook

With both primaries just concluded, forecasters are likely to revisit their ratings in the weeks ahead as general election polling and spending patterns develop. The race is expected to be highly competitive, with Democrats holding a slight advantage in most forecasts but facing headwinds from recent polling showing movement toward Sununu. Outside spending is expected to accelerate significantly in the general election phase, with major national committees likely to invest heavily in this open-seat race.

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