Florida drew $3.73 million in outside-group broadcast bookings today, more than any other state, with both parties booking airtime there at the same time. That concentration suggests Florida is one of the few places where both sides are committing airtime at the same time, which matters for anyone tracking where the broadcast money is going.
Democratic-aligned groups booked $5.13 million today against $4.44 million for Republican-aligned groups, a ratio of 1.2 to 1. Yesterday Democratic-aligned groups booked $333,000 against a Republican-aligned net of negative $21,000, so the Democratic lead widened from $354,000 to $695,000. Over the trailing seven days Republican-aligned groups led $39.77 million to $30.16 million, so today's Democratic edge reflects a single strong day against a week in which Republicans were ahead.
Florida's $3.73 million splits into $2.27 million Democratic-aligned and $1.47 million Republican-aligned, up from no outside-group money the previous day, with House Majority PAC, which files as a Democratic-aligned group, accounting for the entire Democratic total. No Going Back PAC supplied $1.47 million of the Republican-aligned total. Most of Florida's total, $3.69 million, carries no race name; Tampa-St. Pete was the largest market at $2.08 million. Airtime reserved for flights still to run stands at $13.92 million Democratic-aligned and $11.16 million Republican-aligned in Florida, consistent with both sides treating the state as contested.
Republican-aligned groups drove a net cut of $1.84 million in Georgia, with Senate Leadership Fund, which files as a Republican-aligned group, cancelling $724,000 of Atlanta airtime, the largest cancellation in today's filings, and cutting a further $270,000 there. The Georgia U.S. Senate Seat (Class II) is rated Likely Democratic for the Nov. 3 general election.
The forward book shows $11.96 million booked by Republican-aligned groups and $7.28 million by Democratic-aligned groups for the week starting November 2. A response from Democratic-aligned groups would look like new filings adding reserved airtime for that week in markets where Republican-aligned groups already hold time, such as Florida.
Methodology and caveats
The figures come from FCC political files covering broadcast, cable, radio and satellite stations, which do not include digital or streaming advertising. Sides reflect each filing's own classification of its sponsor as Republican-aligned or Democratic-aligned, applied to super PACs, hybrid PACs and 501(c)(4) groups, and national party committees are reported separately and excluded from both sides' totals. Candidates' own campaign buys are not included, and groups that buy no station airtime never appear in the files, so nonprofit dark money is only partly visible. A filing is tied to a race only when the order names a candidate or prints the race; the rest is counted for its state alone. Filings appear in the file within a day or two of the order. All sanity checks passed.
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