The Race

Mario Diaz-Balart cleared the Republican primary in Florida's 26th Congressional District on Aug. 18 without opposition, setting up a general election contest scheduled for Nov. 3 in one of the most demographically distinct districts in the country.

The Republican primary stage recorded one candidate and one winner, with Diaz-Balart receiving 100 percent of the vote. Results remain unofficial pending certification. No vote totals were reported in the results data.

The Democratic primary, also held Aug. 18, featured two candidates. As of publication, that contest is still counting ballots, and no winner has been declared.

Primary Results

Republican Primary

The Republican primary was uncontested. Diaz-Balart, the incumbent, was the sole candidate on the ballot and advanced as the party's nominee with 100 percent of the vote. The results carry unofficial status.

Democratic Primary

Two candidates competed in the Democratic primary on Aug. 18. The race remains in the counting stage, and no nominee has been declared. The general election ballot is expected to include three candidates across both parties.

Campaign Finance

Candidates in the race had raised a combined $2.45 million as of Aug. 19. No breakdown by individual candidate was available in the data.

No independent expenditures from outside groups, PACs, or super PACs have been filed in connection with this race. No commitments directed at the general election have been recorded.

Outside Spending

No PAC or super PAC independent expenditures have been filed for Florida's 26th District in the 2026 cycle. Neither support nor opposition spending has been recorded for any candidate in the primary period, and no forward-looking general election commitments appear in federal filings at this time.

District Demographics

Florida's 26th is one of the most heavily Hispanic congressional districts in the country. Of the district's total population of approximately 804,169 residents, 73.7 percent identify as Hispanic. White residents account for 31.7 percent of the population, Black residents 5.5 percent, and Asian residents 1 percent.

The district's foreign-born population stands at 55.6 percent, a figure that sets it apart from most House districts nationally. The voting-age population, defined as residents 18 and older, totals 652,315.

Economically, the district reflects moderate conditions. The median household income is $71,986, the poverty rate is 14 percent, and the unemployment rate is 4.2 percent. The median home value is $444,800, and 56.3 percent of housing units are owner-occupied. Some 13.9 percent of residents lack health insurance, and 11.2 percent report living with a disability.

On education, 82.3 percent of residents hold a high school diploma or higher, and 30.7 percent hold a bachelor's degree or higher. The median age in the district is 43.1 years.

Race Ratings

Three independent handicappers, the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, each rate the Florida 26th as "Solid Republican." The consensus rating, as of Aug. 17, aligns with all three individual assessments. Cook and Sabato last updated their ratings on Aug. 13; Inside Elections last updated on Aug. 6.

Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, as of Aug. 20, the market assigned Republican candidates an 89.11 percent probability of winning the general election, with Democratic candidates at 10.89 percent. The market recorded $6,255 in trading volume. These figures reflect prediction-market probabilities and are not a forecast produced by this publication.

General Election Outlook

Every major race handicapper rates Florida's 26th as Solid Republican, and Kalshi's prediction market as of Aug. 20 placed the Republican probability of winning at 89.11 percent. No outside spending has been directed at the race from either party, consistent with the noncompetitive ratings. The Democratic primary has not yet produced a nominee, and the general election is scheduled for Nov. 3.

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