Why It Matters
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc nor the opposition secured a majority in Israel's Oct. 27 parliamentary elections, leaving coalition negotiations to determine the country's next government, potentially shaping the direction of U.S.-Israel relations and the ongoing war with Iran.
A new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report examines the election results and government formation process. For Congress and the Trump administration, the formation of Israel's next government could have significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, particularly as Washington navigates the conflict in Gaza, efforts to expand diplomatic normalization between Israel and Arab states, and debates over military assistance.
The next government's positions on Palestinian statehood, settlement expansion in the West Bank, and military operations against regional adversaries could influence diplomatic negotiations and congressional decisions on arms transfers and security cooperation. The outcome could also affect Washington's ability to advance regional stability and negotiate agreements with Israeli leaders, particularly if the governing coalition includes parties opposed to territorial concessions or diplomatic compromises.
The Big Picture
The CRS report examines the results of Israel's Oct. 27 elections and the mechanics of its proportional representation system, under which no single party typically wins an outright majority. According to unofficial results cited by the report, Netanyahu's Likud won 27 of the Knesset's 120 seats. His right-leaning bloc secured 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party. Arab-led parties won the remaining 19 seats, potentially positioning them to influence government formation.
The report's release comes as the United States remains deeply engaged with Israel on multiple fronts, including the conflict in Gaza and broader regional diplomacy. The report noted that Israeli military operations since October 2023 have degraded threats from Iran and its regional allies while causing tens of thousands of civilian casualties and affecting regional stability. The composition of the next Israeli government, including which parties hold key ministries, could influence how those issues develop.
Congressional interest in Israeli politics has grown alongside debates over U.S. security assistance. The report identifies congressional proposals to restrict certain arms transfers, impose sanctions related to Israeli settlements, and address violence in the West Bank. It also highlights potential implications for U.S.-Israel defense cooperation and the annual defense authorization process.
The report outlines how coalition negotiations proceed after an election and how President Isaac Herzog assigns a lawmaker the mandate to form a government. After the official results are published, Herzog has seven days to select a candidate, who then has 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. Those mechanics matter because a government's policy direction often reflects concessions made to smaller coalition partners during negotiations.
The Bottom Line
Israel held its parliamentary elections Oct. 27, but neither major bloc emerged with enough seats to form a government on its own. Official results are scheduled for publication Nov. 4, after which Herzog will begin the formal government formation process. If negotiations fail, Netanyahu's government could remain in office in a caretaker capacity until another election, potentially in early 2027.
Congress will be watching whether Netanyahu remains in power, Eisenkot assembles an alternative coalition, or the parties negotiate a unity government. The outcome could influence Israeli policy toward Gaza, the West Bank and Iran, as well as congressional debates over military assistance and U.S. regional diplomacy.
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