Modi's Party Consolidates Power Across Indian States

Why It Matters

A new Congressional Research Service report on India's domestic politics arrives at a moment when the world's largest democracy is consolidating power in ways that carry direct consequences for U.S. foreign policy, trade negotiations, and Congressional oversight of the bilateral relationship.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party entered 2024 weakened nationally, forced into a coalition government for the first time in Modi's career. But by spring 2026, the BJP had swept through state after state, including opposition strongholds once thought untouchable, raising fresh questions about the health of Indian democratic pluralism and what a more dominant BJP means for U.S. engagement with New Delhi.

The Big Picture

India's constitutional framework vests real executive power in the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers, not the ceremonial President. The 543-seat Lok Sabha is the locus of national power. At the same time, the Rajya Sabha, the upper chamber, can block non-revenue legislation but cannot remove the prime minister or veto budget bills. Understanding this Indian parliamentary democracy structure matters for U.S. policymakers because it shapes what Modi can and cannot do, both at home and in negotiations abroad.

The 2024 national elections delivered a surprise. The BJP won 240 Lok Sabha seats, short of an outright majority, and Modi was forced to govern through the National Democratic Alliance coalition, which holds 293 seats, or 54 percent of the chamber. The report describes the outcome as a "surprise setback" for Modi and the party, and notes that many analysts characterized the BJP's national campaign as divisive.

The CRS report documents a sustained BJP winning streak at the state level that has fundamentally altered the Indian political system's balance of power. In 2024, the BJP won control of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha while maintaining incumbency in Haryana and Maharashtra. In 2025, it captured the Delhi National Capital Territory for the first time in nearly 30 years, and Bihar's longtime chief minister, NDA ally Nitish Kumar, stepped down and handed power to a BJP figure.

The BJP swept West Bengal, winning more than 70 percent of seats to rout Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress after 15 years in power. West Bengal had been considered an opposition bastion. Also in 2026, the incumbent DMK was ousted in Tamil Nadu by the upstart Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam party. The report states that the BJP now controls 16 state governments, with NDA-allied chief ministers seated in four more. Half of all Indians live in five states, and after shifts in early 2026, all five are now led by BJP chief ministers.

This matters beyond electoral optics. Under India's constitutional framework, state assembly composition directly determines Rajya Sabha membership. As the BJP expands its state-level presence, it accumulates upper chamber seats, gradually eroding the opposition's ability to block non-revenue legislation. The report explicitly flags that the NDA's economic reform agenda can be impeded in the Rajya Sabha, but that dynamic may be shifting.

Indian Political Parties and the Opposition's Retreat

The opposition INDIA bloc, which had demonstrated enough cohesion in April 2026 to defeat the government's Constitution Amendment Bill to expand the Lok Sabha to 850 seats, is otherwise in significant retreat. The rout of the AITC in West Bengal and the DMK's loss in Tamil Nadu removed two of the bloc's most prominent members from their state power bases. The Indian National Congress, the other major national party, won 99 Lok Sabha seats with 21 percent of the 2024 vote, and controls only four state governments. The report notes that the BJP now accounts for more than one-third of the country's state legislators, compared to under one-fifth for Congress.

Regional and caste-based parties, which had returned as a crucial variable in the 2024 national election, hold roughly one-third of all Lok Sabha seats. But the BJP's state-level dominance increasingly marginalizes those parties as independent power centers.

Political Stakes

For the Trump Administration

The BJP's consolidating grip on Indian governance presents Washington with a more powerful but also more ideologically defined partner. For U.S. strategic goals in the Indo-Pacific, a dominant and stable Modi government offers continuity on defense cooperation and frameworks like the Quad. The report makes clear that Modi and the BJP are likely to remain the central interlocutors for U.S.-India relations for the foreseeable future.

On trade, the picture is more complicated. Because Modi governs through a coalition, his ability to push through bold economic reforms, including those relevant to U.S. trade negotiators, remains constrained by coalition partners who may resist changes that hurt regional constituencies. The report notes that India's economic record under 12 years of BJP governance is mixed: strong overall growth has lifted millions out of poverty, but the country continues to face growing inequality and high rates of unemployment and inflation.

For Congress

The CRS report gives congressional committees a direct line of sight into the Indian government structure and the political forces shaping New Delhi's decision-making. For members on foreign affairs, armed services, and trade committees, the BJP's consolidation raises at least two sets of questions.

First, there is the question of democratic backsliding. The report notes that observers have raised concerns about signs of democratic erosion and that Hindu religious majoritarianism, the BJP's ideological core, threatens the status and rights of India's minority communities. These concerns have historically generated friction between Congressional priorities around religious freedom and the strategic imperative of deepening the U.S.-India partnership.

Second, the defeat of the Constitution Amendment Bill in April 2026, when a united opposition voted it down in the Lok Sabha, illustrates that the Indian political system retains meaningful checks, at least for now. But as the BJP converts state-level dominance into Rajya Sabha seats, the legislative arithmetic will shift.

For the Indian Public

The report's portrait of India's domestic political setting is one of a democracy where competitive elections continue to function, but where one party is accumulating structural advantages across the federal system. The BJP's sweep of West Bengal, a state that had resisted it for years, signals that few remaining opposition strongholds are secure. At the same time, the report notes that Modi's 2024 national setback, his failure to win an outright majority for the first time in his career, demonstrated that Indian voters can and do deliver verdicts that constrain even popular leaders.

The Bottom Line

The CRS report on India's domestic political setting delivers two things Congress needs heading into any engagement with New Delhi: a clear map of who holds power and a candid accounting of the tensions that come with it.

The BJP is reshaping the structural architecture of Indian parliamentary democracy, converting state-level dominance into upper chamber leverage and systematically weakening the opposition's organizational base. For U.S. policymakers, that means a more predictable partner on strategic questions, but also a partner whose domestic ideology, Hindu nationalism, and economic protectionism create recurring friction points on human rights, trade, and democratic norms.

The one legislative moment that cut against this trend, the April 2026 defeat of the Lok Sabha expansion bill, shows the opposition can still act in concert when the stakes are high enough. Whether that holds as the BJP's Rajya Sabha numbers grow is the question Congress should be watching.

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