Why It Matters

A new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report says the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China has become far more capable in recent years, and is racing toward modernization goals that could reshape regional power dynamics within the next decade.

The Big Picture

The CRS report and the Pentagon's latest assessment, published in December 2025, paint a picture of a military in flux. The PLA consists of four services—the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force—alongside four newer service arms including a Cyberspace Force and Information Support Force. This restructuring, initiated by Xi Jinping in 2015, represents the most ambitious reorganization since the 1950s and remains a work in progress more than a decade later.

The PLA operates a 332-ship navy, the world's largest by vessel count, equipped with modern submarines, aircraft carriers, and unmanned systems. Its air force flies approximately 2,200 fighter jets, primarily fourth-generation aircraft with an increasing number of fifth-generation platforms. The missile arsenal is equally formidable: roughly 2,750 short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles, 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, and 300 ground-launched cruise missiles. Some of these can carry conventional or nuclear warheads.

China's current nuclear warhead stockpile sits in the low 600s, but the Department of Defense projects it will exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The PLA is developing a nascent nuclear triad, capable of launching weapons from land-, sea-, and air-based platforms. Coupled with advanced cyber espionage forces and space capabilities designed to track and target forces on Earth, China is building a military designed for global reach.

China's official 2026 defense budget is approximately $281 billion. However, Pentagon estimates suggest actual Chinese defense spending in 2024 was 32 to 63 percent higher than the official figure, making China the world's second-largest military spender after the United States. The gap between reported and actual spending reflects China's strategy of leveraging commercial technology advances and, according to assessments, foreign technology theft through its "military-civil fusion" approach.

Political Stakes

The Trump Administration's 2026 National Defense Strategy explicitly identifies China as the United States' primary competitor in military capability, and seeks to ensure that neither China nor any other nation can dominate the U.S. or its allies. The strategy aims for a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific that allows all nations to enjoy what it calls "a decent peace."

The National Defense Authorization Act has been the primary vehicle for enhancing U.S. military competitiveness, with provisions aimed at China appearing regularly since the FY2000 NDAA established reporting requirements and restrictions on military contacts with the PLA. Congress has funded numerous programs to counter Chinese capabilities and directed the executive branch to submit regular assessments of the threat.

Xi's anti-corruption campaign has resulted in the removal or sidelining of more than 100 senior PLA officers since 2022, including several members of the Central Military Commission. The commission itself has been hollowed out, shrinking from 11 members during Xi's early tenure to just one sitting member aside from Xi himself. The Pentagon assessed in 2025 that while these personnel changes could improve readiness in the long term, they "very likely risk short-term disruptions" in operational effectiveness.

The PLA's strategic focus remains clear: preparing for a possible conflict with the United States over Taiwan, a self-ruled island of 23 million people. Secondary priorities include defending territorial claims in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and along the China-India border. To support these ambitions, China has established military footholds abroad, including a naval base in Djibouti established in 2017 and a Joint Logistics and Training Center at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia inaugurated in 2025. The Pentagon assesses the PLA has likely considered basing in 21 other countries.

The Bottom Line

Xi has set the goal of building a "world-class" PLA by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China's founding, with interim targets to accelerate modernization by 2027 and basically complete it by 2035. The PLA last fought a war in the 1970s, meaning its current force has no recent combat experience—a potential vulnerability that internal purges could exacerbate. Nonetheless, several government and nongovernmental assessments conclude the PLA's ability to challenge U.S. military superiority in some areas has already increased.

Access the Legis1 platform for comprehensive political news, data, and insights.

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article